– Brief History of Bangladesh (BD)
The Awami League (AL) led by Sheikh Hasina Wajid has been at the helm of affairs in BD since 2009. Her late father Sheikh Mujibur Rehman was the pioneer of BD separatist movement. With the assistance of India and the former USSR, he accomplished his dream of creating BD in Jan 1972 after the fall of Dacca on Dec 16, 1971.
After his release from Pakistani jail, he returned to Dhaka on 10 January 1972. He floated the absurd myths of killing of 3 million Bengalis and rape of 300,000 Bengali women by Pak Army, which were utterly false and were never proved. In February 1975, President Mujib formalized the country as a one-party state (Baksal) by banning all other political parties.
On August 15, 1975, he along with his 22 family members were hacked to death by the officers and men of BD Army. For three days their bodies languished in the Bangabandhu mansion. Finally, their bodies were dumped in a single mass grave without identity. Only his two daughters survived; Sheikh Hasina Wajid and Sheikh Rehana studying in West Germany.
For the next 16 years, BD was ruled by the military generals. (Gen Ziaur Rehman 1977-1981, Gen Hussain M. Ershad 1983-1990. In 1990, Begum Khalida Zia head of BNP and Sheikh Hasina Wajid heading AL banded together to oust Gen Ershad. From 1992 onwards the two Begums took turns to rule.
Except for Hasina Wajid, all other BD rulers maintained friendly relations with Pakistan, and Pakistan helped in upgrading BD defence forces. India brought Hasina to power in 2009 and has ensured her continuation to this day. India also assisted in upping the economics of BD. She is beholden to India and has virtually made BD a vassal state of India.
– India’s Role in East Pakistan’s (Bangladesh) Separation and Its Impact on Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations
After the Partition of India into two States in August 1947, Indian leaders vowed to disrepute ‘Two-Nation Theory’ by separating East Pakistan (EP) from West Pakistan (WP). India used the tool of subversion to inculcate hatred in the minds of the people of EP against WP. Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and Indian leaders hatched a conspiracy in 1963 at Agartala to launch an armed insurgency duly supported by India to create independent BD. It took 24 years to brainwash loyal Bengalis and change their perceptions. To them, WP was an enemy which had made EP into a colony, and India was their friend and well-wisher.
In the post BD independence era, India has all along conspired to keep BD-Pakistan relations strained and to uphold the intensity of hatred among the younger generations of BD. After Sheikh Mujib, India found Sheikh Hasina the right person to tow its agenda of discrediting Pakistan.
In order to win over the sympathies of Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (then NWFP), due to their socio-economic grievances, India not only used RAW to subvert their minds against the federal govt, Punjab and Punjab-dominated Army. Additionally, India paid special attention to the development of Bangladesh.
India went out of the way to help Hasina in quelling internal dissent and in economic growth. With no external threats and continuity of rule, it was not difficult for BD to achieve milestones in the economy under the strong patronage of India. BD’s impressive turnaround in economy did have a profound impact upon the grieving provinces of Pakistan and the political parties working upon foreign agenda. Today, a political party and vested groups are applauding BD and India and badmouthing Pakistan.
– Sheikh Hasina Wajid’s Rule
Hasina served her first term as PM of BD from 1996 to 2001. From 2008 onwards, Hasina has been in power while Khaleda is languishing in jail. In January 2010, five former military officers who had been convicted of assassinating Mujib, were executed. In the same year, a tribunal was set up to begin trying war crimes cases of 1971 war. Several aged Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) leaders were hanged to death. Power hungry Hasina removed the clause of non-partisan caretakers from the constitution in 2011 and thus managed to achieve landslide victories in 2014, 2019 and 2024 elections. She revived her father’s legacy of Baksal.
– 2014 Elections
Khalida Zia, leader of BNP had boycotted 2014 elections since AL had refused to conduct elections under a neutral interim regime. Her demand was valid and refusal of AL was invalid. Ater BNP’s boycott, there was no contest on 153 seats out of total 300 seats (more than 50% seats), and AL candidates won these seats unopposed. The elections were declared by foreign observers as unfair. The EU had refused to send its monitoring observers.
From 2014 to 2019, the opposition parties, particularly the BNP and JI, were systematically crushed by the ruling AL regime. Their leaders were put in jails and a massive crackdown was unleashed. It was justified under the plea that JI was linked with a banned group Jamaat Mujahideen. Terror attack on a bakery in Dacca in 2016 by Daulat-e-Islamia, gave a handle to the govt to beat the Islamists pitilessly. The crackdown continued till 2019 and even afterwards.
A new law was passed under digital security in order to impose restrictions on Online & social media outlets and print media. Anyone criticizing the govt policies was punished. In 2018, the judges of the Supreme Court rejected the amendment in the constitution by the parliament which had curtailed their powers. A charge was levied against the CJP that he was involved in malpractices and was forced to leave the country.
– December 2019 Elections
In February 2019, Khalida Zia was imprisoned on charges of malpractices which she termed as political vendetta. She was disallowed to take part in the 2019 elections. In her absence, 81 years old ex-minister of AL and partner of Hasina Kamal Hussain was nominated as leader of the opposition, who was the architect of BD Constitution.
It had been predicted by foreign journalists, analysts and human rights activists that the elections would not be free and fair, and Hasina would sweep the polls. They had collected all the reports about the pre-poll rigging in the form of intimidation, abductions, murders, extra judicial killings, enforced disappearances, trumped up police cases and arrests of thousands of members of opposition. Political opponents were harassed and brutally tortured to silence them. They opined that if elections were conducted fairly, BNP would have a tough time and it would be a closely contested election.
60 BNP contestants and all members of JI were disallowed to take part in the elections. Only 20 BNP members took part. Attack on the American Ambassador in Dacca in August 2019 was stage-managed to raise the boggy of Islamic threat.
All the political parties in Bangladesh had expressed their apprehensions before the international media about the fairness of elections before the polls.
The BBC journalist gave an eyewitness account of how ballot boxes were filled before the polling and taken to the polling stations. At the second largest polling station at Chittagong, international reporters saw that only govt officials were positioned (similar was the situation in other polling stations). They also found a ballot box stuffed with votes before the polling. When the presiding officer was asked, he refused to answer.
The BD EC informed Reuters that it had heard complaints of rigging from all over the country and it will investigate. During the polls, many cases of persecution took place. The reported deaths were 17, and several dozen policemen were injured. One of the BNP leading candidates was severely injured with knife stabs. Reuters gathered from the police that another opposition contesting leader Salahuddin Ahmed was also attacked.
To avoid untoward incidents on the polling day, about 600,000 security forces were deployed. About 10 crores were eligible voters. Hasina’s victory was imminent because her chief rival Begum Khalida Zia was in jail on corruption charges. During the polls, high-speed mobile and internet services were closed down to avoid disturbances on account of rumors of rigging and highhanded tactics.
The AL won 281 out of 350 seats, while the Opposition could win only seven seats. The EC declared Sheikh Hasina Wajid and her Party AL the winner.
The Opposition termed the elections a joke, farcical and massively rigged and vehemently condemned it. The opposition demanded the fraudulent elections to be annulled. They demanded re-elections under an unbiased interim setup.
Protests against rigging in elections were carried out in the past but in 2019, the level of anger of the youth was never seen before. A 17 years old boy in his interview to the BBC reporter lamented, “We only want that the rulers should terminate their corrupt practices and AL should refrain from distributing arms licenses among their young members like sweetmeats”.
The people were of the view that extremism and dictatorship had intensified in the last ten years (2010-2019). It was assessed that democracy in BD had become extremely monstrous. ‘Reporter without Border’ wrote, “Ranking of democracy in BD is at 144 out of 180 countries”. ‘Economic Intelligence Unit stated that from 2014 to 2017, BD’s democracy stood at 85 to 92 out of 167 countries. In 2018, BD was included in the list of Autocratic States (Bertus Man). By 2019, BD had become a Single-Party State. In 2019, 4100 cases were registered against BNP leaders and activists in one month.
– January 7, 2024 Elections
All the bullying and persecuting tactics and unfair means employed in earlier elections against the opposition parties were again put to use in 2024 elections. These tactics had been used in the 1970 elections as well. More than 20,000 leaders and members of the BNP were arrested. AL once again swept the polls in the 12th BD elections by winning about 40% of eligible votes. It secured 222 seats and the independents (mostly AL members) bagged 62 seats out of total 300 seats.
The US State department expressed its reservations by stating that the elections were not free and fair. The UK was also dissatisfied. The reason was that BD had failed to evolve a credible electoral system meeting the international criteria. Except for four elections held under the caretakers, all others were controversial and contentious.
– BD’s Achievements
In the 16-year continuous rule of AL under Hasina, BD economy posted impressive growth, and became the fastest growing economy in the world. Its exports increased phenomenally and its GDP in 2022 was $2,688 per capita, or $460.20. Its growth, however, shrunk and forex reserve dwindled due to Covid-19 followed by the Ukraine war.
– BD’s Challenges
The BD population is 170 million which has a Muslim majority. It is faced with the effects of climate change, poverty, social vices and law and order issues. The country is also beset with the issue of 700,000 Rohingyas displaced from Myanmar in 2017. Its act of giving refuge to them was appreciated, but not granting them refugee status and mistreating them were censured by the world community.
The most pressing challenges are the growing extremism and intolerance. One of the major problems is the high rate of unemployment of the youth. Nearly a fifth of the country’s 170 million population is out of work or education. Autocracy of the ruling govt of Sheikh Hasina and zero tolerance for dissent and criticism is not to the liking of the western world.
Today, BD suffers from high inflation, rising unemployment and depleting foreign reserves. BD is reeling from ripple effects of the Ukraine war and had to secure $ 4.7 billion bailout from the IMF in January 2023. Hasina’s autocracy has earned her the stigma of a dictator.
– July 2024 Protests against Quota system
Nationwide unrest broke out in BD following angry protests by the students in Dhaka against the quotas for govt jobs. Dhaka saw huge daily rallies in the third week of July 2024. On 18 July, the student protesters torched and vandalized several police and govt offices and BTV HQ. On 19 July, despite the ban on public gatherings, they stormed a prison in Narsingdi and freed 850 inmates as police struggled to quell unrest. The prison was incinerated. 133 people (including 28 on the 19th) have already been killed. More than 2500 people are wounded, including 104 police officers and 30 journalists. Key highways and railway tracks have been blocked by students. AL offices were burnt.
The protesters are demanding immediate resignation of the PM and are blaming the govt for the killings of 40 students. They want an end to the quota system that reserves more than half of civil service posts. It reserves 30% govt posts for those who fought in 1971 war (Mukti Bahini and AL), 10% for women and 10% for residents of specific districts. Quota system deprives 3 crore unemployed youth.
Quota system was abolished in 2018, but reinstated by the Supreme Court in June 2024. The top court has once again suspended it temporarily for a month. Students want merit-based recruitment.
Pro-protesters started expelling pro-AL students from dormitories of campuses. All schools and universities have been closed for an indefinite period. The ongoing protests are the eruption of simmering discontent of the youth built over years of economic and political disenfranchisement. Pakistani students in Dhaka have been shifted to safer places.
The police made extensive use of tear gas, rubber bullets and sound grenades, but failed to disperse the protestors. Excessive heat with 40% humidity is another constraining factor, which is impeding the efficiency of the law enforcers wearing battle dresses.
Hasina dubbed the protesters as Pakistani agents and Razakars (those who had sided with Pak Army in 1971 and were dubbed as collaborators), and vowed to punish the culprits. The students are highly miffed over the remarks of Hasina calling them Razakars.
PM Hasina was forced to call in the army on 18 July to help maintain law and order. Strict curfew has been imposed and shoot-on-sight order given to the army. The streets are deserted. The BD Army has so far not given any indication of a possible military coup to topple the regime, which has become unpopular. It has generally maintained a backward posture since 2013, and has let the police and paramilitary forces to deal with disturbances.
Even if the ongoing unrest is controlled, the simmering will continue. The sailing for Hasina and her party would get rougher and rougher and it would become extremely difficult to carry on with one-party rule and dictatorship. Instability and chaos will create bigger space for the Islamists and militant groups and would further impact BD’s economy and internal volatility.
