The Ukraine- Russia war, which erupted in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion, has been one of the most defining geopolitical crises of the 21st century. It has not only reshaped the security landscape of Europe but has also placed the United States at the center of global diplomatic and military efforts. Under President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, U.S. policy toward the conflict has taken different trajectories, influencing the war’s progress and potential resolution.
As recent peace talks in Saudi Arabia between Russian and U.S. delegations—held in front of key Saudi officials—have signaled, the United States may now be seeking an end to the war. However, with Trump’s hardline stance on Ukraine, European nations stepping up their support, and growing concerns over the feasibility of Ukraine’s NATO membership, the critical question arises: Can Ukraine win this war without continued American support? And should Kyiv reconsider its stance and pursue a peace deal with Russia?
America’s Role in the Ukraine War Under the Biden Administration
When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Joe Biden quickly rallied Western allies to support Kyiv. His administration spearheaded extensive sanctions against Moscow, cut off Russian banks from the global financial system, and supplied Ukraine with advanced military equipment, including HIMARS, Patriot missile systems, and tanks. The U.S. provided over $30 billion in military aid to Ukraine, a figure that underscored Washington’s commitment to ensuring Russia’s defeat.
However, this unwavering support came at a cost. Domestically, American lawmakers and the public grew increasingly skeptical of the endless flow of aid, especially amid rising inflation and political divisions within Congress. Internationally, many non-Western nations began questioning the long-term sustainability of the conflict, with some advocating for diplomatic solutions rather than perpetual military escalation.
The Biden administration also faced criticism for rejecting early peace negotiations, believing that Russia needed to be weakened before diplomacy could be effective. This stance changed recently as secretive U.S.-Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia emerged, signaling that Washington may now be willing to negotiate an end to the war—on terms more favorable to Moscow than Kyiv had hoped.
The prolonged conflict with Russia has left Ukraine’s economy in a precarious state. Between 2022 and 2024, international allies provided approximately $115 billion in financial assistance to Ukraine. The major contributors included:
- European Union (EU): $44.8 billion
- United States (USA): $31.2 billion
- International Monetary Fund (IMF): $12.4 billion
- Japan: $8.5 billion
- Canada: $5.4 billion
- World Bank: $5.2 billion
- United Kingdom (UK): $3 billion
- Germany: $1.69 billion
- European Investment Bank (EIB): $0.62 billion
- Norway: $0.517 billion
This aid has been crucial in sustaining Ukraine’s defense efforts, maintaining governmental functions, and initiating infrastructure rebuilding. The collective support from the EU and the U.S., totaling over $76 billion, underscores Ukraine’s reliance on Western allies. Peace Talks in Saudi Arabia: A Shift in U.S. Strategy?
The high-level diplomatic meeting in Saudi Arabia between U.S. and Russian officials, attended by key Saudi leaders, has altered the trajectory of the conflict. In a significant development, the U.S. reportedly assured Russia that Ukraine will not join NATO, a key demand from Moscow since the war’s inception. Additionally, discussions led to agreements on lifting some Russian sanctions and finalizing delegation members for future talks.
This meeting, widely regarded as a diplomatic victory for Russia, underscores America’s shifting priorities. The Biden administration, despite its public rhetoric about standing firm with Ukraine, appears to be seeking an exit strategy from the war. Washington recognizes that the conflict has strained its resources, complicated relations with Global South countries, and has the potential to escalate into a broader confrontation with Russia.
The peace talks also highlight a growing realization within the U.S. that Ukraine’s battlefield victories are becoming harder to sustain. Without a significant boost in military aid, Kyiv may struggle to maintain its defense, making negotiations more viable. The U.S. decision to initiate these talks reflects its acknowledgment that an indefinite war is neither politically nor strategically sustainable.
Trump’s Approach: A Tough Stance on Ukraine
Unlike Biden’s administration, Donald Trump has taken a starkly different approach to the war. As he campaigns for a return to the White House, he has made clear that he intends to curtail U.S. involvement in Ukraine and push for immediate peace talks, even if it means concessions to Russia. In a recent meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump reportedly gave him a hard time, questioning Kyiv’s reliance on U.S. aid and warning that he would not provide a blank check for the war effort.
Trump’s tough rhetoric underscores a broader shift in American foreign policy debates. The Republican Party, once staunchly in favor of aiding Ukraine, is now increasingly divided, with many lawmakers questioning the effectiveness of continued military assistance. Trump’s stance suggests that if he were to return to power, Ukraine would face a vastly different geopolitical landscape, one where U.S. aid is severely curtailed, and diplomatic pressure to reach a peace deal with Russia intensifies.
Can Ukraine Win Without U.S. Support?
One of the biggest questions emerging from recent developments is whether Ukraine can sustain its war effort without the United States. While the European Union has provided $44 billion in aid, surpassing American contributions, the U.S. remains the most significant single contributor to Ukraine’s defense. Without Washington’s backing, Kyiv would struggle to maintain its military operations, procure advanced weaponry, and defend its territories effectively.
Europe’s support for Ukraine remains steadfast, but logistical and military constraints limit its ability to fill the void left by America. Countries like Germany and France have ramped up their aid, yet the political will to sustain an indefinite conflict is not as strong as it was in the war’s early days. Furthermore, European nations face their own economic and security challenges, which could make long-term assistance to Ukraine more difficult to maintain.
In this scenario, Ukraine may have to reconsider its strategic objectives. If U.S. support wanes, Kyiv might need to engage in serious negotiations with Russia to avoid further battlefield losses. This could mean revising its stance on NATO membership and seeking alternative security guarantees.
Should Ukraine Pursue a Peace Deal?
With shifting geopolitical dynamics, the case for a negotiated settlement is growing stronger. While Ukraine has shown incredible resilience, the war has devastated its economy, displaced millions, and inflicted heavy casualties. If an opportunity arises to secure a peace deal that safeguards Ukraine’s sovereignty while avoiding further destruction, Kyiv should consider it seriously.
A peace agreement that excludes NATO membership but secures Western-backed security assurances might be a more pragmatic path forward. Additionally, if sanctions on Russia are partially lifted as part of a broader deal, Moscow may be more willing to engage in lasting peace rather than pursuing further territorial ambitions.
At the same time, Ukraine must weigh the risks of a deal. Conceding NATO membership might weaken its long-term security position, and any agreement with Russia must be enforceable and credible. The challenge lies in ensuring that Russia abides by the terms and does not use a ceasefire to regroup for future offensives.
Conclusion
The Ukraine-Russia war has entered a new phase, where diplomacy is becoming more viable than prolonged military confrontation. With the U.S. seeking to exit the war under Biden, Trump advocating for a tougher stance against Ukraine, and Europe shouldering more of the burden, Kyiv must reassess its options carefully.
As peace talks in Saudi Arabia progress, Ukraine faces difficult choices. While its fight for sovereignty and territorial integrity is justified, the evolving geopolitical reality suggests that continued conflict may not yield the desired outcome. A negotiated settlement, even with painful compromises, could offer a more sustainable path to securing Ukraine’s future.
Ultimately, the decision lies with Kyiv. However, as the U.S. signals a shift in policy, the window for a peace deal may be opening—and Ukraine must decide whether to step through it before the cost of war becomes unbearable.
