The 2024 State Assembly Elections in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) have gained significant attention within the region and internationally.
The political scenario is deeply rooted in historical conflicts, particularly the long-standing dispute over Jammu and Kashmir, which has remained unresolved for decades.
The elections, while presented by the Indian government as a step toward democratic governance and normalcy, are widely viewed as a façade, concealing deeper socio-political manipulations aimed at altering the region’s demographic, political, and religious landscape.
Historical Context of the Jammu and Kashmir Dispute
Jammu and Kashmir, often called the “Paradise on Earth,” has long been a contested territory between India and Pakistan. The root cause of the conflict dates back to 1947, following the partition of British India into India and Pakistan. Both countries claimed the region, leading to multiple wars and continuous skirmishes.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has passed several resolutions, including the crucial Resolution 47, which called for a plebiscite to allow the people of Jammu and Kashmir to determine their future. However, this plebiscite has never been held.
For decades, the issue of Jammu and Kashmir has remained a core point of contention in South Asia, drawing international concern. The region’s special autonomous status, granted under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, was revoked by India in 2019, sparking massive outrage and protests.
The abrogation of Article 370, which granted Jammu and Kashmir a degree of autonomy, was perceived as India’s attempt to fully integrate the region into its union while disregarding the aspirations of the Kashmiri people.
The 2024 State Assembly Elections: A “Sham” Exercise
The 2024 elections in IIOJK have been criticized as a “cosmetic” and “sham” exercise designed to create a false sense of normalcy and legitimacy. Various analysts argue that the elections are a mere tool for India to showcase democratic governance in the region while continuing to suppress the Kashmiri people’s demand for self-determination.
A crucial issue lies in the manipulation of the election process itself. The delimitation of constituencies, gerrymandering, and disproportionate seat allocations have fundamentally altered the political dynamics in the region.
Jammu, a Hindu-majority area, has been allotted six additional seats, while the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley received only one additional seat. This deliberate skewing of representation aims to create a manipulated majority in the Jammu region, which would favor pro-India political parties such as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Additionally, the government has issued over 3.2 million domicile certificates to non-residents, further diluting the Muslim majority in the Kashmir Valley. This move is seen as part of India’s larger demographic engineering to establish a Hindu-majority foothold in the region.
Delimitation and Gerrymandering: A Case of Political Engineering
The most glaring example of political manipulation in IIOJK is the 2022 delimitation exercise. A total of 22 constituencies were redrawn, favoring Hindu-majority areas, further tipping the balance toward Jammu.
This redistricting disproportionately benefits the BJP, as it aligns with their long-term strategy of consolidating political control over Jammu and Kashmir.
The allocation of five seats to the Lieutenant Governor, three for migrants, and two for Kashmiri Pandits, further shifts the political landscape.
This effectively gives the Lieutenant Governor control over 5% of the seats in the state assembly, increasing the BJP’s influence in the assembly by creating a “manipulative space.”
The demographics in the Jammu region have also played a significant role in shaping the electoral outcomes. 81.25% of Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) reside in Jammu, providing the BJP with a significant voter base.
The SC/ST vote has historically been aligned with nationalist ideologies, further enabling the BJP to solidify its control in Jammu, while Kashmir continues to push back against such political maneuvers.
A Militarized Election Environment
One of the most disturbing aspects of the 2024 elections is the heavily militarized environment under which the polls are being conducted. With nearly one million Indian security forces deployed across IIOJK, the elections have been reduced to a military exercise rather than a true democratic process.
The overwhelming presence of security personnel in polling areas casts doubt on the authenticity of the elections, with many residents feeling coerced into participating under duress.
The militarization of the elections not only undermines the democratic process but also belittles India’s claim of restoring normalcy in the region. The elections, held in the shadow of guns, further exacerbate the tension between the Indian state and the Kashmiri people.
The international community, particularly human rights organizations, has raised concerns over the oppressive environment in which these elections are taking place.
Denial of Political Freedom and Arbitrary Detentions
Another crucial issue that casts a dark shadow over the 2024 IIOJK elections is the denial of political freedom. The All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), which has long advocated for Kashmiri self-determination, has been banned.
Approximately 48 APHC leaders are in illegal custody, many detained under draconian laws such as the Public Safety Act (PSA) and the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). These laws allow for detention without trial, depriving the people of IIOJK of a fair and just political landscape.
The suppression of political dissent through arbitrary arrests and prolonged detentions has significantly affected the election process.
The Indian government has extensively used these tactics to coerce APHC leaders into either abandoning their stance or diluting their demands, leaving no level playing field for political engagement in the region.
Post-Election Results: The Fallout of a Manipulated Process
Once the election results are announced, the political landscape of IIOJK is expected to reflect the deep-rooted divisions in the region. While the BJP may secure significant support in Hindu-majority Jammu, it is unlikely to garner substantial backing in the Kashmir Valley.
Despite its attempts at political engineering, the Kashmiri people have largely rejected the BJP’s Hindutva-driven policies.
The victory of other political parties, particularly those that promise the restoration of statehood, would signify a rejection of the BJP’s five-year-long political manipulation. The Kashmir Valley’s consistently low voter turnout compared to Jammu reveals the stark contrast in political sentiments.
While the Hindu population in Jammu may foresee a promising future under BJP rule, the Kashmiri Muslims remain deeply resentful of the abrogation of Article 370 and the continued suppression of their rights.
Diplomatic visits to IIOJK during the election process have also been criticized for their stage-managed nature. Selected diplomats were only allowed to visit Srinagar, and the visits were heavily controlled, with no international media coverage permitted. This further delegitimizes India’s claims of transparency and normalcy in the region.
Future Prospects: A Fragmented and Ethnically Divided IIOJK
Looking ahead, the 2024 State Assembly Elections are unlikely to resolve the deeper political crisis in IIOJK. The BJP’s settler-colonial policies and demographic engineering have created a fragmented and ethnically divided region.
The increase in non-resident settlers and the manipulation of electoral boundaries have further alienated the Muslim-majority population of the Kashmir Valley.
In the future, IIOJK may witness continued political and social unrest. The BJP’s attempts to alter the region’s demographic structure, combined with its repressive policies, have only fueled anti-India sentiments among the Kashmiri population.
The Kashmiri people’s desire for self-determination remains strong, and the electoral process will likely be viewed as yet another episode of political manipulation and disenfranchisement.
Conclusion: The Path Forward
The 2024 State Assembly Elections in IIOJK are a critical moment in the region’s history. However, the elections, conducted under a cloud of military occupation, political manipulation, and demographic changes, failed to address the root cause of the Kashmir conflict.
The international community must recognize that the only acceptable solution to the Kashmir issue is a UN-supervised plebiscite, in line with UNSC resolutions and the wishes of the Kashmiri people.
The future of IIOJK remains uncertain. As long as India continues its repressive policies and denies the Kashmiri people their right to self-determination, the region will remain a flashpoint for conflict and unrest.
The 2024 elections, far from bringing about peace and stability, may only serve to deepen the existing divisions and exacerbate the struggle for freedom in Jammu and Kashmir.
