Amid rising global tensions, it is increasingly speculated that World War III could be imminent—possibly igniting within the next 48 hours.
This alarming forecast stems from the growing recklessness of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet, bolstered by unflinching U.S. and European support for Israel’s unprovoked aggression against Iran, launched on June 13.
Status of the Iran-Israel War
Now in its sixth day, the war has inflicted significant damage on both sides. Due to the approximately 1,200 km separation between the two countries, the conflict remains confined to aerial warfare. No ground invasion has yet occurred—nor is one feasible for Israel or its backers. However, the United States and Britain may deploy special forces into Iran if Israel significantly weakens its military infrastructure.
During the initial five days of air strikes, Israel succeeded in assassinating key Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists. Despite repeated attempts, however, it failed to destroy Iran’s fortified nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Israeli missiles managed to damage only above-ground infrastructure. The underground bunkers remain intact, and no radiation leaks have been reported. The Bushehr nuclear power plant remains untouched.
Only the United States possesses the munitions required for penetrating deeply buried targets. Responding to Netanyahu’s request to President Trump on June 14, the U.S. has forward-deployed stealth bombers equipped with bunker-busting munitions, air refuelling tankers, fighter aircraft, an additional aircraft carrier, a destroyer, and thousands of paratroopers. The US had already indirectly joined the war by shifting the THAAD air defence system from Ukraine to Israel and providing 300 Hellfire missiles to Israel before the war.
The U.S. justifies this build-up as necessary to protect American personnel stationed at air bases throughout the Middle East. Meanwhile, Britain has already mobilized military assets to the Gulf, and France and Germany appear poised to join the fray.
Strategic Setbacks and Risks
Israel, despite its destructive capabilities, lacks the capacity to annihilate Iran’s nuclear infrastructure or eliminate its technical know-how. Nine nuclear scientists may have been killed, but the Iranian expertise remains. Notably, Israel destroyed the missile production site at Khojir, near Tehran.
Intelligence suggests that enriched uranium—reportedly around six kilograms refined up to 60%—may have been relocated to secret facilities. With existing reserves, Iran potentially has the capacity to produce up to ten nuclear weapons.
Given the prevailing trajectory, prospects for de-escalation appear bleak. A broader regional war seems more probable with each passing day.
President Trump, rather than seeking to mediate, is escalating the conflict through coercive diplomacy and military threats. He has rejected ceasefire options and is demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender—specifically the dismantling of its nuclear and missile programs. Trump also claimed U.S. air dominance across the Middle East and warned Iranians to evacuate their homeland. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, he suggested ominously, may be targeted next. Netanyahu echoed similar threats, advising civilians to flee Tehran.
In response, Iran continues to retaliate with missile strikes on Israeli targets and has called on Israelis to evacuate Tel Aviv. 50,000 elite Israelis have left Israel by boats to Cyprus since no air flights are available. Likewise, thousands of rich Iranians living in Tehran have shifted to the mountains in depth.
Geopolitical Dimensions
China and Russia have made heavy investments in Iran and are major importers of Iranian oil and gas. The two global powers with strategic interests in Iran, are unlikely to remain idle. Russia previously salvaged the Assad regime in Syria in 2015 but could not prevent rebel gains in December 2024. Moscow still retains control of a vital airbase on the Syrian coast, which it may consider a red line.
On June 17, President Putin declared full air superiority over Ukraine following strikes on Kyiv, indicating Russia’s intent to counter U.S. aggression by leveraging the Ukrainian front. China, Russia, and North Korea have all invested in Iran’s infrastructure, supporting it against crippling Western sanctions and aiding in the development of its defence capabilities.
These three nuclear-armed states recognize Iran and Pakistan as the last remaining bulwarks against the U.S.-Western-Israeli-Indian axis. The fall of either country would jeopardize Eastern Eurasia and endanger initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Such a loss could also derail the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) ambition to establish a new multipolar world order.
Since 2020, under Xi Jinping, China has shifted from a defensive to a proactive military posture, particularly in response to U.S. provocations in Taiwan and the South China Sea. Today, China enjoys significant goodwill across the Global South and is increasingly respected in Europe for its peaceful development model.
In contrast, the U.S. faces global resentment for its perceived hypocrisy, militarism, and support for Israel and India’s oppressive policies. Taking advantage of the changing perceptions, Jinping stated that the world can live without the hegemony of the USA.
Russia, under President Putin, has emerged as China’s strategic partner. Both are actively challenging the dollar’s dominance by promoting trade in rubles and yuan. Meanwhile, the Ukraine war continues to drain Western economies, with little hope of a favourable outcome.
The Broader Conflict Landscape
The war in Gaza remains unresolved. Despite immense suffering, resistance from the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah continues. Israel appears eager to pull the U.S. into a full-scale conflict with Iran, seeing it as the final obstacle to realizing its vision of “Greater Israel.” Yet, Washington cannot afford another protracted war amid growing domestic discontent and Trump’s waning popularity.
To protect Israel, the U.S. risks overextending itself—a gamble it may not survive, given its recent record of military failures.
Following Iran, Pakistan would likely be the next strategic target. Recognizing this, Pakistan has extended moral, political, and diplomatic support to Iran while condemning Israel’s aggression.
The United Nations, the OIC, and other international peacekeeping entities have failed to act meaningfully. The reality is that weaker nations must prepare to defend themselves.
Iran’s Strategic Options
Iran has five options:-
One. Continue striking Israel till its stocks are exhausted, and suffer the toil. It will enhance the stature of Iran and diminish Israel’s credibility.
Two. Carry-out the nuclear test immediately. It might put fear into the hearts of Israel and the US, compelling them to ceasefire.
Three. Block Hormuz. It will escalate oil and gas prices, disrupt global supply chains, impact the global economy and aggravate the woes of dependent nations. Another way towards a ceasefire.
Four. Hand over the security of Iran to Russia, China and North Korea. It will sharpen the global divide and draw confrontational lines between the two blocks.
Five. Capitulates and agrees to sign the US dictated nuclear deal. It would imply losing its credibility and respect in the Middle East for good.
Most Likely Option. Number one. Iran may agree to negotiate, but will disagree to roll back its nuclear program.
