Unilateralism is Over for the USA

Like many world analysts, I have maintained since 2010 that the era of a sole superpower dominated by the USA is waning, while China is steadily ascending. History shows that all empires, after reaching their zenith, begin a gradual decline before eventually fading away. The US empire is no exception.

From Bipolar to Unipolar Dominance

The USA emerged as a superpower after the Second World War, competing with the USSR for global dominance during the Cold War. The League of Nations was replaced by the United Nations, and later the UN Security Council’s P-5 nuclear powers were formed.

Great Britain, which had colonised vast territories in Asia and Africa for two centuries, became Washington’s mentor, teaching it the arts of divide-and-rule and neo-colonialism.

The US established a network of international institutions—NATO, ICC, ICJ, HRW, the Red Cross, USAID, IMF, World Bank, the Bretton Woods system—ostensibly to promote peace, but in reality to maintain its hegemony and keep the Global South divided and dependent. Establishment of 800 military bases and eleven Command Centres had a similar purpose.

By 1974, with OPEC’s cooperation, the dollar was entrenched as the petrodollar—the sole currency for global oil and gas trade. The collapse of the USSR in 1991, along with the Warsaw Pact, shifted the world from bipolarity to unipolarity, enabling the US to dictate global economic and political terms through capitalism, the New World Order, WTO, and the G-7 bloc.

China’s Rise

China, emerging from its post-1949 socialist isolation, began modernising in 1979 under Deng Xiaoping. It focused on technological, industrial, and agricultural growth, joining global markets while maintaining a defensive foreign policy until 2025.

Meanwhile, the US and its allies fabricated the “radical Islam” threat in the 1990s, targeting the seven strongest Muslim countries in the Middle East, alongside Afghanistan, to redraw borders, control resources, and weaken potential challengers like Pakistan, Iran, China, and Russia.

The 9/11 attacks provided Washington with a false-flag pretext to launch the Global War on Terror. This enabled invasions, regime changes, and targeted assassinations under the cover of counter-terrorism.

Erosion of US Power

From 2001 onwards, the US appeared unchallenged. NATO acted as the world’s policeman, expanding deep into Eastern Europe. But Russia’s stand in Ukraine (2014) and China’s growing economic and military strength signalled resistance to US unilateralism.

India and Israel—both strategic US allies—strengthened militarily and pursued their own regional ambitions. Pakistan, as a nuclear power, and Iran, suspected of seeking nuclear arms, became key targets of this US-India-Israel nexus.

The 20-year Afghan war ended in a humiliating US withdrawal in August 2021, eroding Washington’s prestige and opening the door to multipolarity.

Global Backlash

Unconditional US support for Israel and India—both serial violators of human rights—alienated much of the Global South, especially the Muslim world. Israel’s genocide in Gaza and India’s brutal occupation of Kashmir have inflamed global opinion.

While the G-7 powers enriched their elites through wars, the Global South was left impoverished and destabilised. Western violations of UN resolutions and international law have rendered the so-called “rules-based order” hollow.

By contrast, China and Russia have positioned themselves as champions of a more equitable, multipolar system. The 2007–08 financial crisis, COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and now the Gaza war have drained Western economies, while US-China trade disputes disrupted supply chains and fuelled inflation.

Despite sanctions and containment efforts, China has become the world’s second-largest economy and a leader in advanced technologies, space exploration, and AI. With China’s support, Russia has gained the upper hand in Ukraine, threatening the cohesion of the US-European alliance.

BRICS now controls a greater share of global GDP (35%) than the G-7 (30%), and is undermining the petrodollar system by promoting alternative currencies like the yuan and rouble.

Shifting Alliances

Public outrage over Gaza, including among Western citizens and moderate Jews, has forced some Western governments—such as Canada, France, Britain, and Australia—to consider recognising Palestine. Pressure on Washington, the chief enabler of Israel, is mounting.

China, as the natural leader of the Global South, along with Russia and other emerging powers, is pushing for a new world order based on fairness, justice, and equitable cooperation. Latin America, Eastern Europe, and many Asian states are gravitating towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with CPEC as its flagship.

Domestic Turmoil in the West

The US and Europe are facing rising far-right extremism, deepening political polarisation, and the erosion of democratic norms. Seven European states have already come under far-right influence. In India, Hindutva nationalism has shattered the façade of secularism, fuelling regional instability.

Israel’s hardline government under Netanyahu seeks Greater Israel, rejecting the two-state solution and planning the permanent annexation of Gaza and the West Bank. This agenda directly threatens Pakistan, prompting Israel to collaborate militarily with India.

The New Strategic Equation

Recent conflicts—the four-day Indo-Pakistan war and the 12-day Israel-Iran war—have shifted the geopolitical landscape. The China-Pakistan axis has strengthened, while the Indo-US-Israel nexus has weakened. Iran is now leaning towards Pakistan, and Turkey and Azerbaijan have reaffirmed their friendship with Islamabad.

Bangladesh is now a friend of Pakistan and an adversary of India. A possible China- Pakistan-Bangladesh triangular strategic relationship is in the offing.

Most strikingly, the USA is now sidelining India and re-engaging Pakistan with trade and resource exploration agreements. Donald Trump has signalled intent to replace Modi and make Pakistan a strategic partner, while punishing India with tariffs and possible sanctions over its oil trade with Russia.

Pakistan’s geostrategic position, strong military, and vast mineral wealth—including gold, copper, oil, and gas—make it an attractive partner for Washington. High-level visits by Pakistani leaders to the US have laid the groundwork for cooperation.

Pakistan has established a credible position as a potential bridge in easing strained relations between the United States and countries like China and Iran, while also playing a constructive role in reducing anti-American sentiment within the Muslim world.

A Word of Caution

However, Pakistan must approach this fourth strategic partnership with caution. Previous alliances—in the Ayub, Zia, and Musharraf eras—ended in US betrayal. Today’s multipolar environment limits Washington’s ability to dictate terms, but Islamabad must safeguard its core national and security interests.

If Pakistan plays its cards wisely, it can balance relations between the US, China, Russia, and the Muslim world—maximising benefits while avoiding the pitfalls of past alliances.

The author Brigadier (R) Asif Haroon Raja, is a war veteran, defence and political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, and ex-Chairman of the Thinkers Forum Pakistan. He is currently Director of the Measac Research Centre, Patron-in-Chief of the CDS Think Tank, and Administrator of Fact Check. He frequently appears on TV talk shows and delivers lectures on strategic affairs

*The views and opinions expressed herein, and any references, are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the Centre for Development and Stability (CDS).