The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a game-changer for Pakistan’s economic landscape. At the heart of this multibillion-dollar venture lies Balochistan, the largest yet least developed province of Pakistan. With its vast natural resources, strategic location, and the Gwadar Port, Balochistan is central to the success of CPEC.
Yet, while the project offers immense promise, it also exposes deep-seated challenges i.e. economic, political, security-related, and social. The stakes are high: CPEC could either be a lifeline for Balochistan’s development or deepen its existing marginalization.
This article delves into the historical context, current dynamics, and future prospects of CPEC in relation to Balochistan, backed by facts, figures, and powerful policy recommendations to ensure inclusive development.
Historical Context: Balochistan and Federal Marginalization
A Legacy of Neglect
Since Pakistan’s inception in 1947, Balochistan has faced systematic neglect in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and job creation. Despite being rich in natural gas, coal, copper, gold, and fisheries, its people have remained among the poorest in the country. For instance:
- Balochistan contributes over 25% of Pakistan’s total landmass, but receives only around 6-7% of federal development budgets.
- The Human Development Index (HDI) of Balochistan remains the lowest among all provinces, with literacy rates around 46% (PSLM 2022), and female literacy even lower at 26%.
Strategic Importance
Balochistan’s geo-strategic location, bordering Iran and Afghanistan and touching the Arabian Sea, made it an ideal location for the deep-sea port at Gwadar, first envisioned in the 1950s and revived in the 2000s with Chinese help. The idea was to turn Gwadar into a regional trade hub linking China to the Middle East and Africa.
CPEC: A Game-Changer
What is CPEC?
CPEC launched in 2015, CPEC is a $62+ billion economic framework involving infrastructure development, energy projects, special economic zones (SEZs), and trade connectivity from China’s Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port.
Breakdown of Previous Projects:
- Energy Projects: $34 billion
- Infrastructure (roads, rail): $12 billion
- Gwadar Port development: $2 billion
- Industrial Zones & SEZs: $6 billion+
- Others (ICT, water projects, etc.): $8 billion
Gwadar: The Crown Jewel
Located in southern Balochistan, Gwadar Port is a pivotal element of CPEC, providing China with direct access to the Arabian Sea. The port reduces China’s dependency on the Malacca Strait and shortens its oil import route by thousands of kilometers.
Key Developments:
- Gwadar East-Bay Expressway (completed in 2022)
- New Gwadar International Airport is Operational
- Free Trade Zone
- Gwadar Smart Port City Master Plan
The Benefits Envisioned for Balochistan
- Job creation (an estimated 70,000+ jobs in Balochistan by 2030)
- Infrastructure development in remote areas
- Industrialization through Special Economic Zones (e.g., Hub SEZ, Gwadar Free Zone)
- Tourism and fisheries growth
- Increased security presence and governance improvements
Current Challenges and Ground Realities
Despite ambitious plans, the ground reality remains complex and challenging.
Exclusion of Locals
A common grievance is that locals are not benefiting proportionally from CPEC. For example:
- Gwadar’s literacy rate is only 25%, which limits local participation in skilled job markets.
- Most labor and technical roles are filled by workers from Punjab or China, not Balochistan.
- Indigenous fishermen complain about being displaced by port development.
Lack of Transparency and Communication
- CPEC projects are often negotiated at the federal and Chinese levels, without provincial representation or public consultation.
- Resource allocation for Balochistan lacks transparency, Over PKR 900 billion is allocated, but local corruption blocks progress.
Security Concerns
Balochistan faces an ongoing insurgency fueled by:
- Historical grievances
- Perceived exploitation of resources
- Militant groups like Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) targeting CPEC-related workers and Chinese nationals
Security response:
- Creation of a special security division (SSD) of 15,000+ troops
- Take measures to stop terrorist groups that are sabotaging peace and disrupting civilian life.
Environmental and Social Impact
- Fishing communities are losing access to traditional waters due to port expansion.
- Water scarcity is worsening; Gwadar relies on tanker-supplied water due to a lack of freshwater plants.
- Massive land acquisition has led to displacement without adequate compensation.
Opportunities for Balochistan: The Untapped Potential
Despite challenges, CPEC can be a transformational force for Balochistan if implemented inclusively and transparently.
Socioeconomic Uplift
- SEZs in Hub, Gwadar, and Dera Murad Jamali can ignite industrial growth and urbanization.
- Focus on skill development programs (technical institutes, language training, ICT).
- Tourism in Hingol National Park, Kund Malir Beach, and Ziarat can be a major source of revenue.
Natural Resource Utilization
- With Chinese technology and funding, Balochistan can develop its copper, gold (Reko Diq), and lithium resources.
- Renewable energy potential (solar and wind in coastal and desert areas) remains untapped.
Regional Trade Hub
Gwadar has the potential to rival Dubai or Singapore in maritime trade by serving:
- Western China
- Central Asia
- Afghanistan
- Middle Eastern markets
The Way Forward: Policy Recommendations
To ensure CPEC is a win-win for Balochistan and Pakistan, the following strategic interventions are recommended:
Ensure Local Ownership and Participation
- Establish a Balochistan-CPEC Oversight Council with elected representatives, tribal elders, and youth leaders.
- Quota in CPEC jobs for local population (minimum 60%) with skill-building support.
- Make project details public to ensure transparency and trust-building.
Invest in Human Development
- Assess the ongoing vocational training centers in Gwadar, Turbat, Khuzdar, and other towns, which are equipping Balochistan’s youth with skills.
- Double the provincial budget allocation for health, education, and skill development.
- More efforts are needed, though China already offers scholarships and exchange programs for Baloch students.
Resolve Security through Dialogue
- Engage in political dialogue with nationalist groups and include them in development planning.
- Create local policing models rather than relying entirely on federal forces.
- Establish community development funds for areas affected by insurgency.
Environmental Sustainability
- Build desalination plants and water pipelines to address Gwadar’s water crisis.
- Conduct environmental impact assessments before every new development.
- Protect fishing communities by designating areas as protected traditional zones.
Economic Decentralization
- Allow the provincial government to collect and manage part of port revenues.
- Facilitate Baloch entrepreneurship in SEZs with soft loans and land subsidies.
- Promote public-private partnerships in the agriculture, mining, and tourism sectors.
Digital Inclusion and Connectivity
- Expand fiber-optic connectivity and mobile coverage in rural Balochistan.
- Support freedom of information and ban blanket internet shutdowns.
- Create an online CPEC dashboard with real-time updates in Urdu, English, and Balochi
Future Outlook: 2030 and Beyond
If handled right, by 2030, Balochistan could see:
- Reduction in unemployment by 50%
- Double-digit growth in GDP contribution
- Major urbanization in Gwadar and Hub
- Emergence of a new educated middle class
- Peace through prosperity and integration
CPEC: A Defining Moment for Balochistan and Pakistan
CPEC is not just a set of infrastructure projects it is a test of Pakistan’s commitment to inclusive development, provincial equity, and long-term stability. For Balochistan, it offers a rare opportunity to break the cycle of neglect, poverty, and alienation that has persisted for decades. The operational status of Gwadar International Airport and the absence of any curfew situation in the region highlight that the ground realities are more stable than often portrayed. It is only terrorist elements bent on sabotaging peace who seek to derail progress.
Encouragingly, CPEC is already generating job opportunities for locals, and China has extended scholarships specifically for students from Balochistan, fostering educational upliftment. Moreover, skill development centers have been established across the province to equip the youth with the tools they need to thrive in a modern economy.
Yet, the biggest hurdle remains internal. The federal government is allocating over Rs. 900 billion to Balochistan, but rampant corruption and poor governance by local authorities continue to obstruct meaningful change. The sense of deprivation among the people is not due to a lack of resources, but rather the mismanagement and misuse of them.
If policy-makers now embrace transparency, decentralization, and a firm focus on human development, Balochistan could emerge as a vibrant engine of regional prosperity anchored by Gwadar as a global trade hub, supported by empowered communities, and driven by peace. But if old habits persist in centralized control, opaque deals, and exclusion, the corridor may deepen the very wounds it was meant to heal.
This is a defining moment in Pakistan’s history. The decisions made today will shape not just the future of Balochistan, but the fate of the entire region. It’s time to choose people over profits, participation over imposition, and peace over power. Only then can CPEC become the beacon of hope it was promised to be for Balochistan, Pakistan, and beyond.
