Unmatched War in East Pakistan (EP)
After a nine-month insurgency, Indian forces established 23 bridgeheads on 21/22 Nov 1971. Thirteen times superior Indian forces invaded, encircled and isolated the former EP on 04 Dec 1971. The heavily outnumbered and outgunned troops cut off from the world, fought with extraordinary grit and determination despite the extremely heavy odds.
4 FF, the defenders of Hilli, blunted repeated attacks of Indian 20 Mountain Division, till they were ordered to withdraw to Bogra on 11 Dec, and were prepared to fight till last man last round.
Lt Gen Niazi in command of 45000 regular and irregular forces could have made history had he opted to die fighting like a tiger instead of surrendering. Defiance might have opened an honorable avenue of exit and possibly a political resolution of ‘confederation’. He and other generals in Dacca buckled down and drowned the sacrifices of the brave hearts in the sea of humiliation. 4 FF, Jamalpur defenders and several other garrisons full of fight had to bear the shame of surrender.
India, supported by the USSR annexed EP on 16 Dec 1971 through subversion and treachery. No country came to the rescue of Pakistan physically, or exerted diplomatic pressure on India troops. No Pakistani leader pledged to avenge the defeat and wash off the humiliation. All aspired for friendship with India and went an extra mile to keep India appeased.
Kashmir – Unfinished Agenda of Partition
With this mindset, Kashmir which had emerged as the unfinished agenda of the Partition and the chief bone of contention between the two neighbours was never taken seriously and was put in the cold freezer. No long-term Kashmir policy was framed and India was given a free hand to consolidate its hold over the disputed territory. Only a reactive policy was adopted.
Even on the diplomatic front, no meaningful effort was made to counter the Indian narratives and the disinformation campaign. India was allowed to build over 60 small, medium and large dams over the three eastern rivers and to indulge in water terrorism.
Apathetic Approach to Kashmir Dispute
It is dismaying to know that all our civil and military leaders did politics with Kashmir. The game started when Liaqat Ali Khan accepted Jawahar Lal Nehru’s request for a ceasefire at a time when our Azad forces and Lashkars had turned the tide of the 1947-1948 war. Maj Gen Akbar Khan had made plans to interdict Indian vulnerable lines of communication at Samba and Kathua.
Nehru duped our leaders by making a false pledge that he would resolve the issue by granting the right of self-determination to the Kashmiris. Thereon he kept buying time, absorbing Kashmir through fake elections, purchasing loyalties of puppets in Kashmir, and making changes in the Indian Constitution. The UN and other world powers remained tilted towards India.
Ayub Khan’s Military Option
Field Marshal Ayub Khan had made Pakistan armed forces a robust fighting machine. He made an earnest effort to liberate Kashmir through use of force, but luck didn’t favour him. Operations Gibraltar and Grand Slam couldn’t meet its planned objectives.
Pak armed forces were able to defeat the nefarious designs of six times superior Indian armed forces, that had vowed to destroy the Pak military in the epic battle of Chawinda in the 1965 War. Had the US not frozen the supply of critical ammunition and spare parts during the war, the Pak Army which had gained superiority of strategic orientation in the Ravi-Chenab corridor, could have turned the tables on India.
Tashkent Accord, Shimla Pact
Tashkent Accord was not a sell off of Kashmir as falsely alleged by ZA Bhutto, but Shimla Accord in 1972 was the first sell off. Bhutto agreed to convert the Ceasefire Line in Kashmir into Line of Control (LoC). Bilateralism favored India, since it could buy time and parry the UN intervention.
Gen Ziaul Haq’s Quest to Liberate Kashmir
Gen Ziaul Haq was the only leader who had a vision of liberating Kashmir. He mandated the ISI to carry out biggest proxy war in Afghanistan in the 1980s without the involvement of any other agency. He secretly supported the Khalistan movement and planned to link it with the Kashmiri freedom movement. After the former Soviet Union accepted defeat in 1988, and agreed to quit in Feb 1989, it was very easy for ISI with ten-year experience in covert war, to take on Indian forces in Kashmir. India was internally at its weakest in the late 1980s and Pakistan had acquired weaponized nuclear capability.
Influence of Zia in Afghanistan
Gen. Zia had gained tremendous influence and popularity in the Pashtun belt of Afghanistan and was loved by them. Gulbadin Hikmatyar had pledged to send one lac Mujahideen to the aid of Kashmiris who had taken part in the Afghan Jihad. Zia was all set to introduce Islamic system in Pakistan.
Gen Zia Assassinated
Gen Zia’s motives to liberate Kashmir, and to establish Islamic system were not to the liking of the western powers. He became a threat to them, and it became obligatory to get rid of him. He along with several generals were killed in a mysterious air crash on August 17, 1988. His departure was rejoiced by Russia, India, and his detractors at home which included the PPP and the liberals. Afghans mourned his death.
Plans to Liberate Kashmir Shelved
After Gen. Zia’s death, plans made for the liberation of Kashmir were shelved. Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif, Gen Pervez Musharraf and Asif Zardari preferred friendly ties with India, and made compromises to damage Kashmiri freedom movement.
None exploited the armed uprising in Occupied Kashmir, which had nailed down seven lacs of Indian forces in the narrow Kashmir Valley. India crushed Khalistan Movement after getting the list of Khalsa leaders from Pakistan in 1989. Kashmir and Afghanistan desks in ISI and MI were closed in 1989 and officers posted out.
Nawaz Sharif’s 2nd & 3rd Terms
In his second term, Nawaz Sharif (NS) cultivated personal friendship with Indian PM Inder Kumar Gujral and initiated the process of composite dialogue in 1997. He claimed that a resolution for Kashmir was around the corner when Vajpayee visited Lahore in Jan 1999. However, he lamented that his hand-picked Gen Musharraf stabbed him in the back by launching Operation Dras-Kargil on his own. In his third term, he established family ties with Narendra Modi. He agreed with Modi in 2015 to accord higher priority to terrorism over Kashmir.
Gen Musharraf Damaged Kashmir Cause
Gen Musharraf took the steam out of Kashmiri freedom struggle by banning six Kashmir focussed Jihadi groups, signing dubious peace deal with India in 2004, allowing India to fence LOC, floating the out of box solution to marginalize UN role, and dividing APHC. From 2004 to Nov 2008, euphoric Pakistanis were led up the garden path that resolution of Kashmir and other disputes were round the corner.
PPP’s 4th Tenure
In line with PPP’s pro-India policy, Asif Ali Zardari declared the Kashmiri freedom fighters as terrorists. He was the mover of the infamous Memogate. Mumbai attacks stage-managed by RAW in Nov 2008 were accepted by the PPP regime as genuine and not a false flag operation. This stance was carried forward by the PML-N regime and Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and ISI were blamed.
Annexation of Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK)
Imran Khan desired friendship with Modi soon after he took over in 2018, but Modi declined to meet him. The Modi regime kept the LOC, Working Boundary in Kashmir and LAC in Gilgit Baltistan extremely hot from Sept 2014 onwards.
India pumped in extra forces into Kashmir Valley in July 2019, and on August 5, illegally annexed the disputed territory, robbed special status of disputed Occupied Kashmir, and divided it into two Indian Territorial Unions of Ladakh and J&K.
Pakistan’s Inaction
That was the time when Pakistan should have gone all out to free Kashmir. Nothing else should have mattered after the jugular vein was severed. At least covert operations should have been stepped up in Kashmir, or some other disturbed regions of India. Pakistan preferred inaction over action.
Secret Understanding
Reportedly, in July 2019, Washington had informed the visiting PM Imran Khan and Gen Qamar Bajwa about Modi’s annexation plan. Trump’s mediation offer was meant to guarantee safety of AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan.
21-gun salute to Gen Bajwa by Pentagon, retiring in Nov that year, was a clear indication that he had consented, and it was decided that he will be given a three years extension. Imran Khan advised the public to protest silently. Jihadi elements wanting to cross the LOC were forcibly stopped.
Gen Bajwa informed Pakistani journalists in January 2021 that the Army didn’t have sufficient fuel to wage a war in Kashmir. A surreptitious ceasefire came into force in Kashmir in February 2021.
Change of Demography
Encouraged by pacifist response from Pakistan, Modi unleashed a genocidal war against the hapless Kashmiris. Modi went ahead with his plan to change the demography and culture of Kashmir.
Revocation of Article 35 A removed the barriers for non-Muslims to permanently settle, buy land and hold local govt jobs in the Valley and marry Muslim Kashmiri girls.
New domicile law was promulgated in April 2020 to authorise residents living for 15 years, or studied for 7 years becoming eligible for permanent residency. Children of govt servants who had served in Kashmir for 10 years were also given domicile status. New constituencies were redrawn to marginalise the Muslims.
Quota of Hindu dominated Jammu Territory was increased from 37 to 43 seats. BJP married up with like-minded parties in Kashmir to acquire greater political space. Modi welcomed foreign investors to invest and build business empires in the Kashmir Valley. Upholding of Modi’s illegal act by the Indian Supreme Court in December 2023 further bolstered Modi’s future designs.
A G-20 meeting at SriNagar in May 2023 on tourism was meant to show to the world that the region could be made into a paradise on earth. The G-20 Summit in New Delhi in Sept 2023 approving a new economic corridor had similar intentions.
Aspiration for Ram Rajya Diluted
BJP under Modi aspires to completely absorb Occupied Kashmir into India, marginalize Indian minorities with the help of Citizenship law, and establish Ram Rajya (Hindu State). Results of June elections have impeded BJP’s ambitions.
Inferences
Without Kashmir, Pakistan is incomplete. Without free flow of river water, Pakistan’s survival is impossible.
Fragile economy, unstable political situation, weaker diplomatic clout handicapped Pakistan to convince the UNSC for a favourable decision on Kashmir.
Pakistan didn’t utilize chances in 1948, 1962, 1965 and Kargil in 1999 to resolve the dispute militarily.
Fear of getting declared a terrorist State subdued Pakistani leaders to boldly support the freedom movement.
Nuclearization has ruled out the option of settlement by force.
No lasting solution is possible without the concurrence of Kashmiris.
Without resolution of the Kashmir dispute, peace and friendship with India will remain a pipedream.
Bilateralism is a big farce to keep the issue under the carpet.
Composite dialogue is another ruse to buy time only.
Facilitation and not bilateralism is a viable course for Pakistan.
Minimum concession India may grant is to accept LoC as a border to settle the Issue.
If the world wants peace in the region, then the Kashmir issue will have to be resolved on the basis of UNSC resolutions.
Recommendations
· Foremost need is to build national consensus on Kashmir policy.
· Without forging internal unity and internal stability, no headway is possible on the Kashmir front.
· A coherent, viable long-term Kashmir policy with clear policy objectives formulated.
· A comprehensive strategy combining all state institutions to deal with India’s strategies in Kashmir developed.
· Kashmir dispute internationalized through proactive diplomacy, aggressive foreign policy.
· Efforts to highlight dangers of Hindutva ideology stepped up.
· Operational base of AJK must be strengthened.
· Friendship with India should be on reciprocal basis. Apologetic policy, one-sided appeasement discarded.
· Media war accelerated to beat back the effects of 5th generation war.
· Hopes of the people of Kashmir kept alive by assuring them they are not alone!
· Keep pressing the UN to settle the oldest dispute.
· China, Russia, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia can become effective facilitators to resolve this chronic issue.
Conclusion
India has converted the paradise on earth into a tortuous nightmare and a living hell for 10 million Kashmiris.
Future of Kashmir is inextricably linked with the destiny of Pakistan.
Internal unity is the basic prerequisite before the dispute can be credibly projected.
Without a ‘solid home front’, there cannot be effective defence.
Pakistan has no plans to avenge the loss of its eastern wing in 1971, or to liberate occupied Kashmir. Prayers, silence, or inaction will neither lessen their pains nor help in achieving freedom.
A well-thought-out Kashmir strategy must be formulated to make life of the occupiers in Kashmir equally painful and to force them to quit.
