Indo-Afghan-Israel Strategic Collusion

The 2011 Indo-Afghan Strategic Partnership Agreement under Hamid Karzai formalised a relationship that had already been functioning covertly since 2002. Both India and Afghanistan were actively engaged in destabilising Pakistan through a sustained proxy war.

Their principal objectives were to weaken Pakistan internally, compel it to roll back its nuclear programme, and ultimately accept Indian hegemony in South Asia.

Proxy War Against Pakistan

FATA and Balochistan were selected as the prime targets for fomenting insurgencies and creating conditions conducive to the establishment of Greater Pashtunistan and Greater Balochistan. The principal instruments of subversion were the TTP, BLA, and their allied groups.

Although none of their grand objectives materialised during the two-decade war on terror, Pakistan suffered grievously — losing over 80,000 lives and incurring $150 billion in economic losses.

The 40-year war in Afghanistan also had a corrosive spill-over effect on Pakistan, fuelling the Kalashnikov and drug culture, radicalism, sectarianism, ethnic divides, and societal fragmentation.

India’s Strategic Encirclement Plan

Leveraging its ties with Afghanistan and Iran, India sought to strategically encircle and diplomatically isolate Pakistan by posing threats from multiple directions.

After the fall of Ashraf Ghani’s regime and the exit of U.S.-NATO forces in August 2021, India swiftly cultivated relations with the new Taliban government, regained its foothold, and reignited the proxy war through Afghanistan.

The TTP, already under Indian influence, was employed to widen the rift between Kabul and Islamabad, intensify cross-border terrorism, and create a two-front threat to Pakistan. India injected venom of hostility into Afghan minds — as it once did through the Northern Alliance — and this hatred now manifests even in sporting arenas such as cricket.

The Interim Afghan Government has effectively become a protégé of India, playing squarely into its strategic designs.

Escalation of Terrorism

From December 2021 onwards, cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan escalated sharply. The years 2024–2025 witnessed the bloodiest violence yet.

Noor Wali Mehsud’s TTP faction in Kandahar, backed by Defence Minister Mulla Yaqub,
Jamaatul Ahrar led by Khalid Khurasani in Nangarhar, and
Gul Bahadur’s faction entrenched in Khost, Paktika and Paktia under Haqqani protection,
along with BLA’s Majeed Brigade, caused maximum carnage.

Funding, arms, and logistics were supplied by RAW through NDS, while U.S. weaponry worth $7 billion left behind in Afghanistan was diverted to these terror outfits.

Simultaneously, RAW-Mossad operations targeted pro-Pakistan and Kashmiri elements, while Israel continued to assist Indian forces in Indian Occupied Kashmir  to crush the freedom movement.

Two-Front War Against Pakistan

In May and October 2025, India, Afghanistan, and Israel jointly orchestrated a two-front military confrontation against Pakistan, striking simultaneously from the East and West and unleashing internal chaos. This campaign coincided with political instability, constitutional crises, economic sabotage, and psychological warfare inside Pakistan — all parts of a grand hybrid strategy to cripple the state.

The plan was reportedly tacitly backed by the U.S. and U.K.

Pakistan’s Counter-Strategy

Pakistan’s armed forces decisively defeated the Fitna-al-Khawarij, humbled an arrogant India within four days, and neutralised the Afghan threat in a week-long border war. A ceasefire was signed in Doha under Qatari and Turkish mediation — but whether it endures or proves temporary remains uncertain.

Leopards, after all, do not change their spots.

Lingering Threats and the Afghan Factor

All Indian investments in Afghanistan remain Pakistan-centric — from dams on the Kabul River to trade routes through Chabahar and the militarisation of Afghan forces. Unless this issue is addressed in future peace talks, tensions will persist.

Key Inferences

• The Indo-Afghan axis has been exposed and humiliated.
• TTA and TTP are two faces of the same coin.
• India is exploiting this connection to avenge its defeats.
• The Indo-US-Israel nexus has remained active since 1992.
• Pakistan’s multidimensional response, combining kinetic, economic, and diplomatic measures, proved effective — especially drone strikes in Kandahar and Kabul, coupled with economic coercion.

Afghanistan cannot afford to ignore its economic dependence on Pakistan. The unresolved question remains: What will become of the TTP? Can Kabul disown or neutralise them?

Strategic Outlook

Those who hope to appease the Afghan Taliban, neutralise India through talks, or soften Israel by recognition are deluding themselves. The Afghan tribal mindset, Hindu Brahman cunning, and Zionist hostility are too deeply ingrained to be altered through goodwill gestures.

India has trained the Afghans in deception and delay — to talk peace when cornered and strike when conditions favour them. Afghanistan, lacking conventional capability, will continue hit-and-run tactics and prolonged low-intensity conflict to drain Pakistan’s resources, while India re-arms them.

Recommendations

1. Break the India-IEA-TTP nexus and deal with each threat sequentially.
2. Continue the “Azm-e-Istehkam” campaign with full vigour, and implement 14 points of the National Action Plan in letter and spirit to eliminate foreign-sponsored terrorism.
3. Treat Afghanistan as a sovereign state, not a “special child.” End one-sided appeasement.
4. Enforce strict border management, dismantle cross-border sanctuaries, and expedite refugee repatriation.
5. Use economic leverage and trade controls as instruments of pressure.
6. Reinforce internal unity through reforms, counter-narratives, and economic resilience.
7. Make Afghanistan realise that as a landlocked country, its survival hinges on peaceful relations with Pakistan.
8. Demand formal recognition of the Durand Line as the international border.
9. If Kabul cannot control TTP/BLA, it must hand them over, or allow Pakistan to neutralise them on Afghan soil.
10. Maintain strategic balance with China, Russia, the U.S., Iran, CARs, and GCC states, while consolidating self-reliance.
11. Since social media and artificial intelligence have emerged as effective tools to achieve war objectives, effective counter measures must be taken to keep the invisible threat in check.

The author Brigadier (Retd.) Asif Haroon Raja, is a retired Brigadier General, war veteran, defence and security analyst, columnist, author of five books, ex-chairman TFP, Patron-in-chief CDS Think Tank, and takes part in TV talk shows.

*The views and opinions expressed herein, and any references, are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the Centre for Development and Stability (CDS).