“Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!” declared US President Donald Trump in a sharp social media post, accompanied by a striking photograph of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin standing side-by-side at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Tianjin.
For many, Trump’s words may have seemed like just another headline-grabbing outburst. Yet, beneath the sarcasm and bravado lay a rare moment of candor. The statement was an acknowledgment that Washington’s grip over global politics – particularly in Asia, is slipping. The very image of three major Asian powers meeting without the United States was symbolic of a historic shift: an emerging order in which decisions about Asia are increasingly made by Asian leaders themselves, not dictated from Washington or Brussels.
This moment is not just about India, China, and Russia coming closer together. It is also about Pakistan, which sits at the heart of South Asia’s strategic geography and whose actions will profoundly influence how this new order takes shape. For Islamabad, the message was clear: the regional chessboard is being reset, and Pakistan must move decisively to ensure it remains a central player rather than a bystander.
India’s Reset: From Balancing to Realignment
For years, India carefully maintained what it called “strategic autonomy.” It positioned itself as a country that could engage with all major blocs without being beholden to any single one. This allowed Delhi to be part of the US-led Indo-Pacific Quad alongside Japan and Australia, while simultaneously participating in the China- and Russia-led SCO. India also built issue-based coalitions like I2U2 with Israel, the UAE, and the US, and pursued trilateral cooperation with countries like France and the UAE.
This diplomatic hedging worked well for India- until recently. The fragile balance began to crack when Trump turned openly confrontational toward Delhi. His administration imposed punitive tariffs on Indian exports and accused India of funding Russia’s war machine by buying discounted Russian oil. Trump’s advisors went further, labeling India a “dead economy” and accusing Prime Minister Modi of playing a “double game” in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
These public insults marked a sharp departure from the warmth of previous US administrations. For Delhi, they were a wake-up call. The very partner India had hoped to rely on to counterbalance China was now questioning its motives and punishing its economy. Modi had little choice but to explore alternatives, and the SCO Summit provided the perfect stage.
The meeting between Xi and Modi was not a mere photo opportunity. It was the result of months of back-channel diplomacy, including the 24th round of boundary talks where both countries reached a 10-point consensus. This was significant given the deep mistrust that has lingered since the deadly Galwan Valley clashes in 2020. Modi’s decision to meet Xi on Chinese soil sent a clear signal: India was ready to move beyond confrontation and pursue pragmatic cooperation with Beijing.
Economic realities also shaped this shift. India’s trade deficit with China now stands at a staggering $99 billion — a figure larger than its entire defense budget for 2025–26. Confronting Beijing while being so economically dependent on it was unsustainable. By re-engaging with China, India is seeking to stabilize its economy while asserting its independence from Washington’s dictates.
Pakistan’s Place in the Emerging Order
While global attention has focused on India’s moves, Pakistan remains a vital part of this changing landscape. Any realignment among India, China, and Russia will have direct consequences for Islamabad, making it imperative for Pakistan to respond with foresight.
China’s warming ties with India do not come at the expense of its longstanding partnership with Pakistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) remains the centerpiece of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. In fact, if tensions between India and China ease, Beijing will have more resources and bandwidth to deepen its economic projects in Pakistan and Central Asia. However, China’s desire for regional stability may also mean increased pressure on both Islamabad and Delhi to avoid open confrontation, particularly along disputed borders.
Russia, meanwhile, is reasserting itself in South Asia. Moscow’s relationship with India is growing stronger, especially in defense and agriculture, with Russian markets opening up to Indian goods. For Pakistan, this presents both challenges and opportunities. On one hand, India’s closeness with Russia could give Delhi access to advanced military technologies and economic advantages. On the other, Pakistan can also strengthen its ties with Moscow by negotiating energy deals and trade agreements that serve its own needs. By engaging Russia directly, Islamabad can ensure it is not sidelined in regional dynamics.
The United States, faced with deteriorating relations with India, may now look to Pakistan as a partner to maintain its influence in South Asia. This could bring renewed defense cooperation and economic support. Yet, Pakistan must tread carefully. While engaging with Washington is important, Islamabad cannot afford to jeopardize its core relationship with China, which remains the foundation of its foreign policy and economic strategy.
India’s moves are also driven by anxiety. As Pakistan strengthens its ties with both China and Russia, Delhi fears being left out of an emerging Eurasian bloc. Modi’s outreach to Beijing and Moscow is thus not purely about reconciliation but it is also about ensuring India has a seat at the table where critical decisions about the region’s future will be made.
The End of US Unipolarity
Trump’s bitter words reflect a larger truth: the era of US dominance is fading. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Washington enjoyed three decades as the sole superpower. It led hundreds of military interventions, expanded NATO, and used institutions like the IMF and World Bank to shape global economic rules. The US effectively wrote the script for international politics.
But today, that script is being rewritten. China’s $18 trillion economy and technological rise have made it a formidable competitor. Russia has survived years of Western sanctions and sustained its war effort in Ukraine, demonstrating unexpected resilience. Platforms like BRICS and the SCO are no longer symbolic. They are actively building alternatives to Western-led financial and political systems, from local currency trade to new development banks.
For Pakistan, this shift to multipolarity brings both opportunities and risks. It offers greater freedom to diversify partnerships and reduce reliance on Western powers. At the same time, it creates a more complex environment where alliances are fluid and competition is intense. Islamabad must be nimble to navigate this new reality.
Implications for Pakistan
The changes unfolding will touch every aspect of Pakistan’s future.
On the security front, a reduction in India-China tensions could lower immediate border risks, giving Pakistan room to focus on internal stability and counterterrorism. However, if India gains advanced weaponry through its partnerships with Russia or China, Pakistan must ensure its defense capabilities are not undermined. The SCO’s growing role as a security forum also offers Islamabad a platform to voice its concerns and shape collective strategies against terrorism.
Economically, India’s increasing trade with Russia, especially in energy, could make Pakistan’s exports less competitive. Islamabad must move quickly to integrate with Central Asian markets, expand its connectivity projects, and develop policies that attract investment. If the US seeks to re-engage, Pakistan should negotiate firmly to secure trade concessions and economic support without falling into dependency.
Diplomatically, Pakistan can use this moment to position itself as a bridge-builder. By playing a constructive role in easing tensions between China and India, Islamabad can enhance its global standing while safeguarding its interests. Active participation in forums like the SCO will be essential to ensure Pakistan’s voice is heard in regional decision-making.
Charting Pakistan’s Path Forward
To succeed in this shifting environment, Pakistan must adopt a proactive strategy. Strengthening ties with China beyond CPEC is vital. This means expanding cooperation into technology transfer, defense co-production, and climate resilience projects. Simultaneously, Pakistan should deepen its relationship with Russia by securing long-term energy deals and exploring joint ventures in agriculture and industry.
Maintaining a constructive relationship with the US is also important. Engagement should focus on areas like education, counterterrorism, and technology while safeguarding sovereignty. At the regional level, Pakistan must invest in connectivity projects linking it to Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean. By becoming a hub for trade and energy, Islamabad can secure its economic future.
Finally, the SCO must be leveraged as a platform for conflict resolution. By pushing for mechanisms that reduce tensions and foster cooperation, Pakistan can help shape the region’s security landscape in ways that align with its national interests.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for South Asia
Trump’s remark about “losing” India and Russia to China was more than a political jab and it was a recognition of reality. The world is no longer unipolar, and the center of gravity is shifting eastward. The Tianjin SCO Summit symbolized this transition, showcasing how regional powers are taking charge of their own destinies.
For Pakistan, this moment carries immense significance. Its geographic position gives it unparalleled leverage, linking Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean. But leverage alone is not enough. Islamabad must act with vision and agility to ensure its interests are protected.
The future of South Asia will not be decided in Washington or Brussels. It will be shaped in Beijing, Moscow, Delhi and most importantly, in Islamabad. This is Pakistan’s moment to rise, to lead, and to define its role in a new multipolar world.
