Hamas popular leader Ismail Hania was assassinated by Mossad in Tehran with a view to achieve following effects:
- Embarrass Iran and create misgivings in Hamas-Iran relations
- Create leadership crisis in Gaza and weaken the resistance movement.
- Demoralise the people of Gaza and the rank and file of Hamas fighters.
- Create space for PLA leader Mehmood Abbas to take over the leadership of West Bank and Gaza.
- Weaken the resolve of the negotiating team of Hamas and compel it to accept the ceasefire on the conditions of Tel Aviv and Washington.
None of the objectives have been achieved. A new leader Yahya Al Sanwar was promptly elected, who has been continuously fighting the invaders inside Gaza, and is highly popular among the Palestinians because of his bravery and leadership qualities.
He has given orders to the resistance forces to launch guerrilla attacks on the occupiers, and rocket/missile attacks on Israel .
Last Sunday, hours before Blinken landed at Tel Aviv airport on his 7th visit after the breakout of the war, the Hamas and Islamic Jihad two-member team, carried out the first explosion in Tel Aviv and caused panic. Sanwar stated that time had come to avenge the genocide and destruction caused by IDF in Gaza; Israel’s barbaric attacks would be paid back in the same coin. Israeli war crimes against unarmed hapless Palestinians will be avenged. He said that the explosion in the Israeli capital city was just the beginning and very soon Israel will face massive destruction.
The Hamas released photos in which the Fidayeen are being exhorted to get ready for attacks. In the last 48 hours, four explosions took place in Tel Aviv.
Resistance put up by the Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza since 7 Oct 2023 against extremely heavy odds is commendable.The whole enclave has been reduced into a ruble. Over 40,000 Palestinians have been martyred and about one lac injured. The majority of the dead and injured are women and children.
The entire 2.3 million population has been displaced to the southern corner of the Strip bordering Egypt and are living in tents under pitiable conditions. Even that place is being subjected to daily air and ground attacks and each attack results in casualties. No place is safe in Gaza, which has become a living hell.
There is acute food and water shortage and medical facilities are nonexistent due to obstruction of supply vehicles. These sufferings have not broken the will and resistance of the Gazans.
No amount of world pressure, or the UN and ICJ could pressurise Israel to ceasefire and put an end to the bloodshed. The war criminal Netanyahu remains adamant and is bent upon eliminating all the fighters of Hamas. He refuses to end the war or to withdraw his forces from the southern tip of Gaza near Khan Yunis and Rafah. His only concern is the release of Israeli hostages.
The US stands solidly behind Israel’s genocidal war and continues to supply funds and arms remorselessly. France and the UK have been steadfastly supporting Israel irrespective of the mass protests of people in the two countries. The people in the western countries are not only condemning Israeli barbarism, they are pressing the ruling regimes to stop supplying arms to Israel and are chanting slogans for the establishment of a free Palestinian State.
Israeli forces have also been bombing the locations of Hezbollah in Lebanon, carrying out extra judicial killings of Hezbollah, Hamas and IRGC leaders in Lebanon and Damascus and even inside Iran. Refugee camps in West Bank in Jordan are also subjected to frequent attacks. The Jewish settlers have become more aggressive against the Palestinians.
The US and the UK undertook military operations against the Houthis in Yemen, who have blocked the movement of Israeli ships and other support ships aiding Israel through the Red Sea.
The Houthis have not relented in their missile attacks against the enemy ships and in carrying out missile attacks on Israel. Their support to the people of Gaza is praiseworthy, particularly when Yemen is facing acute humanitarian crisis and malnutrition.
The Hezbollah deployed in southern Lebanon are continuing to fire missiles on Northern Israel. The latter is gearing up to destroy Lebanon the way it did in Gaza.
Killing of Ismail Hania in Tehran was a deliberate attempt to provoke Iran to start an open war, or to stop supporting its proxies. Israel has all along been urging the US since 2010 to destroy Iranian nuclear sites.
In anticipation of the reprisal attack by Iran on Israel, singly or in conjunction with its proxies, the US has deployed its aircraft carrier and nuclear warship in the Persian Gulf, and is ready to go to war with Iran to protect Israel. All the US airbases around Iran have been alerted and directed to shoot down Iran’s drones and missiles, as had been done in the earlier confrontation in July.
Jordan and KSA are likely to be in the forefront to strike down Iranian projectiles moving towards Israel, as they had done last time. Iran has warned that any regional country trying to block its air attacks would be dealt with.
China has helped in removing differences and friction of 14 Palestinian groups with Hamas. Reportedly, Russia has provided an S-400 AD system to Iran to safeguard its nuclear facilities. The latter has been supplying drones to Moscow for its war in Ukraine.
It is to be seen how Iran under its newly elected President would even up the score with Israel, short of a full fledged war. The best bet for Iran will be to make use of its five proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, launch multidirectional drones, rockets, missiles attacks to beat the Dome AD system of Israel, and also launch guerrilla attacks to optimise the effects of reprisal attacks. Extra judicial killing of an important Israeli leader, or attack on an Israeli Embassy in the Middle East could be other possible targets.
Currently, the hottest flashpoints are Ukraine and Gaza. Both can trigger a wider conflict. Things are becoming difficult for the US, EU and the UK since they are feeding both the fronts excessively at the cost of their economies. Apart from economics, these countries are faced with the threat of assertive Far-Right and racism against the immigrants at home.
China is so far playing a safe game and watching both the conflicts from the sidelines, but is not unmindful of the developments and repercussions in the two volatile regions.
By adopting a defensive policy after 1979, China has dramatically increased its sphere of influence in the Global South by its policies of peace, friendship, cooperation and shared benefits.
CPEC which is the flagship project of OBOR , aims at connecting East Asia with South Asia, and taking 3 billion people of the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa in the loop, and then connecting it with Western Europe.
To make CPEC successful, China invested invested 80 billion dollars in Iran and signed a long-term strategic agreement. It also made heavy investments in KSA. Above all, it brokered the friendship between Iran and KSA, the long time ideological rivals.
China is already the 2nd largest economic power after the USA, and is poised to become the leading economic giant by 2028. It is in control of the majority of supply routes and has dominated the world trade. The majority of the UN members are trading with China. Its mediating skills are surpassing other global powers.
The US has failed to contain China’s economic growth through its policy of containment. It also couldn’t checkmate Russia’s resurgence in the global platform, or to make Ukraine another graveyard of Russia. The latter is in control of the greater part of eastern and southern Ukraine, and has destroyed the infrastructure and energy sector of Ukraine.
The USA, Israel and India are strategic partners and are averse to China and CPEC, as well as Pakistan’s nuclear program. China-Russia’s strategic partnership worries them.
The trio have been pursuing policies of conflicts, wars and covert operations, and are responsible for making the whole world turbulent and insecure.The trio is pushing the world towards the third world war.
Due to aggressive, selfish and unjust policies, the three partners in crimes have lost friends and are also losing support of their people. The USA is no longer a sole super power since unipolarity has been overtaken by multipolarity. The pivot of economics has shifted from the West to the East.
China and Russia backed by SCO and the Global South are wanting to change the unjust world order. New alignments are shaping up.
Pakistan is at the crossroads of realignments. Not only is it a strategic partner of China, which is the ascending power and the future super power, Pakistan is a member of SCO and is getting closer to Russia.
Due to its geostrategic location, its full spectrum nuclear and missile deterrence, and robust armed forces, Pakistan cannot be ignored by any global power, including the USA.
Pakistan must play its cards shrewdly, and try to draw maximum benefits from China, Russia, Arab Gulf States, EU, the US, Turkey, Japan, Africa and ASEAN in order to stabilise its economy.
Iran and Afghanistan influenced by India have been harming Pakistan’s interests and its security. The two should be befriended to safeguard our front yard and backyard.
Toppling of anti-Pakistan and pro-India Hasina regime in Bangladesh, and the changed perceptions of the youth about Pakistan is a godsend opportunity for Pakistan to cash in and get closer to the new interim regime and the BD Army. Swift and vibrant diplomatic efforts are needed to win them over.
What is urgently needed is political stability, internal security and to make the home front united and homogeneous. The forces creating instability and chaos must be reined in.
Digital terrorism fanned by social media is a bigger threat than physical terrorism. Establishment of Firewall to checkmate insidious media war is a much delayed step. China, Russia, KSA, UAE and 35 other countries have already established firewalls in the wake of the Arab Spring in 2011, which toppled regimes of Tunisia , Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, and ruined Iraq and Syria.
The masterminds of the Arab Spring had made use of social media to sell the idea of democracy and freedom and subverted the minds of the youth and made them rebellious. A similar strategy was applied in Pakistan, which climaxed on 9 May 2023. Insidious and malicious use of social media networking operated within Pakistan and outside to harm the integrity of the country must be stalled effectively.
