In an era of fractured alliances and volatile borders, Pakistan’s recent diplomatic outreach to Afghanistan marks a critical juncture. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s high-stakes visit to Kabul in July 2025, culminating in the signing of the Pakistan-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan (UAP) Railway Framework Agreement, reflects more than just infrastructure ambition. It signifies a recalibration of Pakistan’s regional policy — one anchored in connectivity, counter terrorism, and calibrated diplomacy.
While media attention has understandably focused on the multibillion-dollar railway project that could one day link Central Asia to the Arabian Sea, the real story lies in how Pakistan is using economic diplomacy to build a foundation for security cooperation — and possibly, long-term peace.
The proposed rail corridor stretching from Peshawar to Mazar-i-Sharif and onward to Uzbekistan’s Termez is a bold expression of regional connectivity. With costs projected between $4.5 billion and $7 billion, the UAP Railway could reduce cargo transit time from Central Asia to Pakistani ports from 30 days to less than two weeks — a logistical revolution with enormous implications for intra-regional trade.
Importantly, China’s conditional endorsement of the project as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) signals international confidence — albeit cautious — in this vision. As one Pakistani diplomat noted, “This railway project is not just about connectivity; it’s a foundation for long-term peace and shared prosperity.”
In a region historically plagued by fragmented transport systems and closed corridors, Pakistan’s initiative to open trade routes through Afghanistan is not only practical but transformative. It positions Islamabad as the gateway between landlocked Central Asia and global markets, a status that could define its regional influence for decades to come.
While economic integration is the carrot, the stick remains security — particularly the enduring threat posed by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other transnational terrorist groups operating from Afghan soil.
Dar’s visit, along with parallel talks led by Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, conveyed a firm but pragmatic message to the Taliban leadership: security and prosperity are inextricably linked. Pakistan’s delegation presented credible evidence — including communication intercepts and operational intelligence — demonstrating the involvement of Afghan-based elements in attacks like the June 28 Mir Ali ambush, which claimed 13 Pakistani soldiers.
By speaking directly with Afghan Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and Deputy Prime Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, Pakistan made it clear that the Doha Agreement’s spirit must be upheld — Afghanistan’s territory cannot be used for cross-border terrorism.
Importantly, these weren’t ultimatums; they were invitations to cooperate. Islamabad’s approach blends assertive diplomacy with actionable proposals, offering the Taliban regime an off-ramp from isolation through mutual security arrangements.
Amid rising security concerns, the unexpected story of 2025 has been the quiet revival of bilateral trade. According to Afghanistan’s Ministry of Commerce, Pakistan-Afghanistan trade reached $1 billion in the first six months of the year — a dramatic improvement from the sluggish post-2020 period.
While Pakistan exported $712 million in goods — primarily food and industrial items — Afghanistan shipped $277 million in products such as coal, cotton, and dried fruits. Though trade remains tilted in Pakistan’s favor, both sides are benefitting.
But these gains are fragile. Traders on both sides have repeatedly warned about bureaucratic hurdles, abrupt border closures, and restrictive visa regimes that threaten to reverse progress. In response, Pakistani officials have pledged to reactivate cross-border facilitation committees and implement standard operating procedures (SOPs) to separate trade from security disruptions.
Another pillar of dialogue has been the management of undocumented Afghan nationals in Pakistan. With over 1.4 million Afghans residing across the country — many without proper documentation — Islamabad is seeking a phased, humane repatriation strategy.
Interior Minister Naqvi stressed the importance of legal pathways for Afghan migration, while also raising concerns about the exploitation of refugee routes by militant and narcotics networks. Afghan officials, in turn, demanded an end to arbitrary detentions and deportations, calling for policies grounded in dignity and international law.
Pakistan’s willingness to engage constructively on this humanitarian front shows a maturing diplomacy — one that prioritizes regional harmony over populist posturing.
Behind these developments looms the cautious presence of China — a once-eager investor that has scaled back its engagement with Afghanistan amid escalating ISIS-K attacks on its nationals and projects.
Beijing’s position today is shaped by three clear conditions:
- Formal international recognition of the Taliban government
- Visible improvements in Afghanistan’s internal security
- Stronger coordination with regional stakeholders including Pakistan, Iran, and Russia
While China has expressed conditional interest in supporting the UAP railway, its full participation will depend on Kabul’s ability to deliver on governance and counter terrorism. For now, China is not a guarantor, but a silent stakeholder — watching how Islamabad’s outreach unfolds.
Pakistan’s regional diplomacy under Ishaq Dar and Interior Minister Naqvi reflects a dual-track strategy: assertive on national security, yet open to economic interdependence. Instead of disengaging from Kabul amid rising threats, Islamabad is doing the opposite — leaning in with diplomatic, economic, and intelligence engagement.
This is a calculated gamble — betting that shared interests in trade, security, and infrastructure will eventually outweigh ideological rigidity and regional mistrust.
Pakistan has also signaled that it is not just reacting to security threats but is proactively shaping a regional order where cooperation, not conflict, defines relationships. The upcoming visit of Special Envoy Mohammad Sadiq to Kabul will be critical in maintaining this diplomatic momentum.
The road ahead is fraught with challenges. The TTP threat remains real, border friction is likely to persist, and trust between Islamabad and Kabul is still precarious.
But the opportunity is real too. With trade volume climbing, multilateral projects like the UAP Railway gaining traction, and security mechanisms being discussed at the highest levels, Pakistan has opened a window for regional transformation.
The next six months will be decisive. If current momentum holds — and if Kabul takes credible steps against militancy — 2025 could mark the beginning of a new chapter in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations.
For now, Pakistan is on the front foot — cautiously optimistic, diplomatically active, and strategically clear-eyed. That, in itself, is a shift worth noting.
