South Asia is on the brink of a historic transformation. The upcoming defense agreement between Pakistan and Bangladesh marks not only a diplomatic development but also a strategic shift that could permanently alter the region’s geopolitical balance. For the first time in five decades, Dhaka appears poised to shed New Delhi’s shadow and chart an independent course, one that places Islamabad, rather than India, at the center of its evolving security and defense architecture.
- A New South Asian Reality
- India’s Growing Anxiety
- The Pakistan-Bangladesh-China Triangle
- Pakistan’s Strategic Reawakening
- India’s Counter-Move: Courting the Taliban
- A Region in Transition
- The Dawn of a New South Asia
- The author Anum Malik, is affiliated with the State News Agency and contributes her research to the think tank, CDS.
- *The views and opinions expressed herein, and any references, are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the Centre for Development and Stability (CDS).
This emerging alliance, solidified through joint military cooperation, defense pacts, and shared intelligence frameworks, signals a massive recalibration of regional power. As Pakistan’s military delegation lands in Dhaka to finalize key details of the deal, and as Bangladesh inches closer to purchasing 32 JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan, the region’s strategic chessboard is being rearranged. India, once the uncontested influencer in Dhaka’s policy, is now facing an unexpected challenge, one that comes not from distant rivals but from its immediate neighborhood.
A New South Asian Reality
The shift began after the fall of Sheikh Hasina Wajid’s government in what many termed Bangladesh’s Monsoon Revolution. The rise of the interim administration under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus brought with it an ideological shift, away from subservience to New Delhi and toward a more balanced, multi-vector foreign policy. Under this realignment, Dhaka’s leadership has sought to rebuild fractured ties with Islamabad while expanding its outreach to Beijing, Ankara, and other non-Western powers.
When the Bangladesh Navy, led by BNS Samudra Joy, participated in Pakistan’s multinational naval exercise “AMAN-2025,” it was more than a symbolic gesture. It represented Dhaka’s first military-level participation with Pakistan in decades, signaling a willingness to move beyond history and toward pragmatic cooperation. High-level talks between the two nations’ naval chiefs paved the way for deeper maritime collaboration, which could soon evolve into joint exercises, shared logistics, and intelligence-sharing mechanisms, especially vital in the Bay of Bengal and the northern Indian Ocean.
In parallel, the potential acquisition of Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder fighter jets under Bangladesh’s Forces Goal 2030 military modernization plan represents another decisive turn. Not only would it mark Bangladesh’s entry into Pakistan’s defense production network, but it would also integrate Dhaka into a broader Pakistan-China technological ecosystem. The JF-17, co-produced by Pakistan and China, would effectively extend the Islamabad-Beijing defense corridor eastward, right into India’s backyard.
India’s Growing Anxiety
New Delhi’s reaction to these developments has been predictably sharp. India has reportedly objected to Bangladesh’s JF-17 procurement, citing security concerns. But beneath this formal diplomatic protest lies a deeper fear: the unraveling of its decades-long influence over Dhaka. For years, India considered Bangladesh its strategic backyard, both in terms of security cooperation and regional trade corridors. But now, as Dhaka diversifies its defense partnerships, India’s central role is under serious threat.
The situation has been compounded by recent border tensions. In late 2024 and early 2025, multiple clashes erupted between India’s Border Security Force (BSF) and Bangladesh’s Border Guard (BGB). Reports of civilian deaths, unauthorized fencing, and surveillance technologies being used by India further inflamed public anger in Bangladesh. Dhaka’s decision to deploy Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones along the border marked a rare act of defiance. India, in response, has reportedly ramped up its own drone activity, deploying Israeli-made Heron TPs and enhancing its counter-drone operations.
The border, long managed through diplomatic protocols, is now emerging as a flashpoint. The tension over Sheikh Hasina’s extradition request, rejected by India, has added political weight to the crisis. Within Dhaka’s corridors of power, the sentiment is unmistakable: India’s grip is loosening.
The Pakistan-Bangladesh-China Triangle
In June 2025, a trilateral meeting between Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China in Yunnan added another dimension to this shift. The three nations reportedly discussed strategic cooperation in economic development, defense collaboration, and climate resilience. Analysts believe this could evolve into a mini-bloc within South Asia, an axis aimed at balancing India’s growing alignment with the U.S. and its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean.
For Beijing, the inclusion of Bangladesh in its sphere of cooperation provides a critical advantage in the Bay of Bengal, one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors. For Pakistan, it is an opportunity to deepen its strategic footprint in the east, balancing India’s influence in the west. For Bangladesh, it’s a path to strategic autonomy and diversification of defense procurement, away from the costlier Western systems tied to conditional ties.
If this trilateral understanding translates into a tangible alliance, South Asia will witness a new form of security architecture, one where power no longer flows from New Delhi but is distributed across multiple emerging centers.
Pakistan’s Strategic Reawakening
For Pakistan, the opportunity is historic. Decades after the traumatic 1971 split, Islamabad now has the chance to re-engage Dhaka not as an adversary, but as an equal partner in the region’s defense and development. This rapprochement could redefine Pakistan’s eastern front strategy, creating diplomatic depth and reducing India’s geographic advantage.
The Pakistani military’s outreach to Dhaka, particularly its inspection of the 10th Infantry Division, underlines the seriousness of this effort. Islamabad is not merely looking to sign symbolic agreements; it is seeking long-term defense integration, training exchanges, and logistical cooperation that can withstand regional pressure.
At a time when India is overstretched, dealing with tensions with China in Ladakh, managing political instability in Nepal, and monitoring Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s re-entry into Bangladesh’s strategic framework could force New Delhi to recalibrate its entire eastern strategy.
India’s Counter-Move: Courting the Taliban
Reports emerging from diplomatic circles suggest that New Delhi is seeking backchannel engagement with the Taliban to counter Pakistan’s growing influence in South Asia. Such a move, ironically aligning India with a regime it once opposed, shows the depth of India’s strategic anxiety. However, given the Taliban’s continued ties with Pakistan, it remains uncertain whether such overtures will yield tangible results.
A Region in Transition
The changing equations between Islamabad, Dhaka, and New Delhi are not isolated developments; they are part of a broader reordering of South Asia’s political and security landscape. As global powers like China and the U.S. jostle for influence, regional alliances are becoming fluid, pragmatic, and transactional. Traditional loyalties are fading; new partnerships are being forged.
Bangladesh’s strategic reorientation, Pakistan’s reassertion, and India’s declining leverage collectively signal that South Asia is entering an era of multi-polarity. The once rigid regional order dominated by New Delhi is giving way to a dynamic environment where smaller states exercise greater agency.
The Dawn of a New South Asia
If the Pakistan-Bangladesh defense pact materializes, it could reshape not only regional but also global geopolitics. It would signify the end of India’s unilateral dominance in the Bay of Bengal, expand Pakistan’s influence beyond its western borders, and cement China’s role as the architect of South Asia’s new security order.
This development is not merely a bilateral defense deal; it is a statement of independence, a redefinition of alliances, and a reshaping of the Asian century’s strategic landscape. Once it’s inked, the world will no longer look at South Asia through the narrow prism of India-Pakistan rivalry. Instead, it will see a complex, shifting, and multipolar region, one that holds the potential to change the balance of global power.
