India’s Nuclearization
India not reconciled with the existence of Pakistan, maintained an enduring animosity since Partition. The unresolved Kashmir dispute became a bone of contention between the two arch rivals.
India waged wars against Pakistan in 1948 and in 1965. After brainwashing the Bengalis in East Pakistan and bisecting Pakistan into two parts in 1971, India sowed the seeds of nuclearization in South Asia in May 1974 at Pokhran India made use of the Canadian nuclear reactor to carry out the blast, which it named ‘Smiling Buddha’.
India’s purpose was to blackmail and intimidate Pakistan into submission and to become the unchallenged superpower of South Asia. The former USSR, now Russia and the Western world, looked the other way.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Journey
It impelled Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto to adopt the nuclear path and save truncated Pakistan. The foundations were laid at Kahuta in 1976, where a uranium enrichment plant was installed under the guidance of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan.
Henry Kissinger cautioned Bhutto that if he refused to roll it back, a horrible example would be made of him. He didn’t relent and stated, “we will eat grass, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own.”
President Gen Ziaul Haq pursued the weaponized nuclear program covertly, assuring the world that it was peaceful and had no offensive intent.
He took full advantage of Ronald Reagan’s strategic compulsion in Afghanistan, who had to sign a certificate every year to assure the US Congress that Pakistan’s program was for peaceful purposes.
In 1982, the Dr. Abdul Qadeer khan Research Labortied ( KRL) secretly conducted the cold test of its uranium enriched nuclear bomb, and the second test was done in 1984. It brought India and Israel closer, and both planned to destroy Kahuta through aerial strikes.
Pakistan’s undeclared weaponized nuclear capability deterred India under Rajiv Gandhi from invading Pakistan in 1987 under the guise of Exercise Brasstacks, and again in AJK in 1991 in the wake of the armed uprising of Kashmiris in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK).
Indo-US-Israel Nexus
In 1991/92, India became a strategic partner of the US and Israel. Pakistan fell from the grace of Washington, and it was put under heavy sanctions under the Pressler Amendments in order to block Pakistan’s nuclear program. The program was demonized by giving it the name of “Islamic Bomb “. The world was scared that it could be transferred to the radical Arab States.
Military Balance Tilted Towards India
India, which was wholly dependent upon the Soviet defence armament till 1990, was armed to teeth by its new partners and given a free hand to develop its nuclear and missile arsenal by making it a member of Nuclear Suppliers Group. The US was instrumental in heavily tilting the conventional military balance in favour of India.
Until now, the US has inked five strategic agreements with India in order to make it a bulwark against China and the Policeman of the Indo-Pacific region. However, despite the heavy induction of Western arms, more than 60% of India’s weapon systems are of Russian origin, which are ageing and are outdated.
The US Raw Deal to Pakistan
Pakistan had to suffer in the 1965 and 1971 wars because of its total dependency upon the American military equipment. The US stopped delivery of ammunition and spare parts during the two wars, while India received its defence needs from Moscow. The use of American defence munitions by Pakistan against India was prohibited.
Pakistan Veered Towards China
These irritants coupled with denial of already approved and paid for F-16 CD bloc jets by the US compelled Pakistan to veer towards China and North Korea in 1990. The duo helped in developing Pakistan’s missiles program.
This decision proved fruitful, and by now, 80% of Pakistan’s arms and equipment along with technology are of Chinese origin.
Despite international sanctions and espionage threats, relentless efforts of Dr Abdul Qadir Khan Lab, and Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), by 1998, Pakistan had achieved the technological capability to deter any nuclear adventurism.
Nuclear Tests in May 1998
Vexed by the intensifying freedom movement in IOK, India carried out five nuclear tests on 11 and 13 May 1998 at Pokhran and threatened to annexe Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). The blatant tests were not only a challenge to regional stability but a direct threat to Pakistan’s existence.
Pakistan was faced with a decision of existential proportions. It had the choice to either capitulate to global pressure, or to assert its sovereign right to self-defense. History bears witness that it chose the latter course.
Pakistan under Nawaz Sharif rejected the world pressure and responded by conducting five nuclear tests on May 28 and the sixth on May 30, 1998, at the Chaghi Hills. It warmed the cockles of the hearts of every Pakistani, and their ecstasy knew no bounds. It was a declaration that Pakistan would maintain strategic balance in South Asia, uphold its territorial integrity, and pursue peace from a position of strength.
The tests made Pakistan the 7th recognised nuclear state, member of the exclusive club, and the only Muslim nuclear state. Its prestige among the Muslim world rose sky-high. Achievement of nuclear and missile parity by Pakistan ruled out open war, and snuffed the jingoism of the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP ) under Vajpayee and Advani.
Refurbishment of Pakistan Nuclear Program
Gen Pervaiz Musharraf and Strategic Plans Division (SPD) under Lieutenant General Khalid Kidwai formulated minimum nuclear deterrence doctrine and established Nuclear Command Authority (NCA). The nuclear doctrine rested on ‘First Use’ whenever the given thresholds were threatened.
Placing KRL, Prime Minister Office (PMO), Air Weapon Complex (AWC) etc under National Defence Complex (NDC) and nuclear and missile strategic assets under Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), SPD, and Strategic Force Command were also his ideas. The development of cruise missiles and mobile platforms gave Pakistan 2nd and 3rd strike capabilities. Kidwai is still an adviser in National Command Authority (NCA).
India’s Resort to Clandestine Operations
India kept modernising its three military services but confined its belligerence against Pakistan to subversion, coercive tactics, covert operations, and propaganda war to weaken Pakistan from within.
These insidious practices were optimally utilised during the 20-year war on terror and thereafter. The adversaries painted Pakistan as a radical state aligned with Al-Qaeda and Taliban, its nuclear program unsafe, liable to fall in the wrong hands.
In order to hide its crimes against humanity and to achieve its political objectives, India engineered a series of false flag operations to get Pakistan declared a terrorist state. The major dramas were staged in New Delhi in December 2001, Samjhota Express train in 2007, and Mumbai in November 2008.
In Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK), the false flag operations were carried out in Udhampur, Pathankot, Uri, Pulwama, and the last one in Pehlgam22 April 2025. In three cases, India deployed its military along the border with Pakistan and created war hysteria.
Cold Start Doctrine (CSD)
In order to offset Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence , India conceived CSD in 2003 and raised eight Independent Brigade Groups (IBG) comprising two armoured regiments, one armoured infantry regiment, towed artillery battery, artillery in support, self-sufficient in logistics, engineers, and air support. The number of IBGs was later on increased to 15 and was deployed close to the border.
Taking advantage of Pakistan’s vulnerability of lack of strategic depth, CSD envisaged capturing tactical but sensitive towns located close to the border. In other words, wrapping up the offensives with IBGs in the battle of the frontiers and creating strategic effects.
Pakistan’s Response to CSD
Pakistan thwarted CSD with short range (70 km) Nassar missiles and tactical nuclear weapons. Minimum deterrence was morphed into Full Spectrum Doctrine (FSD), and a wide variety of ballistic missiles were produced to cover the whole of India, including Nicobar and Andaman Islands.
Pakistan Airforce (PAF) first opted for diversification by inducting Mirage 2000 from South Africa and Mirages 3-4 from Lebanon in the 1990s. Kamra and NDC started producing J-17 fighter jets, drones, missiles, and radars indigenously in collaboration with China.
Concept of Limited War
India, enjoying a definite edge in conventional and technological planes over Pakistan, India came out with the concept of limited conventional wars in selected areas under the nuclear overhang and drummed it up vigorously.
India also intensified proxy war with Tehrike Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan to emasculate Pakistan and to create fissures of mutiny in Pakistan Army in order to weaken the trunk of the army.
AJK & GB Eyed by India
The eyes of India remained focused on AJK and Gilgit Baltistan (GB). It was in the backdrop of this ambition that disputed IOK was illegally made an integral part of India on 5 August 2019. The annexation of GB assumed greater significance because of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which threatens the global ambitions of the US, Israel, and India.
India Under-estimated Pakistan, Over-estimated Itself
By April 2025, the Indian civil and military leadership assumed that Pakistan engulfed in multiple crises had become sufficiently weak and wouldn’t be able to put up dogged resistance.
They assessed that India had gained sufficient political, diplomatic, economic and military strength because of S-400, Rafael jets, BrahMos, two aircraft carriers, advanced technology, close support of Israel and intimate backup support of the US and the West.
For India, and for Israel, the overall situation was conducive to first overawe hard-pressed Pakistan with its missiles, drones and air strikes, and then unleash limited wars in AJK and GB to suspend Indus Basin Treaty, further truncate Pakistan, and to diminish Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence.
In collusion with the Afghan Taliban regime in Kabul and its terror network in Iran, TTP and BLA were tasked to drench KP and Balochistan in blood.
Israel, which considers Pakistan to be its most dangerous enemy, was to provide and operate drones from its command centre and to guide the air operations with its 150 experts based in Srinagar and Rajasthan The US assured India that the conventional war will not be allowed to escalate to a nuclear clash .
Operation Sindhoor
On the night of 6/7 May 2025, Pakistan was callously attacked by opportunist India, threatening its sovereignty and integrity. Only civilian targets in six cities were struck with missiles on the pretext of hitting terrorist camps.
Among the 80 assaulting fighter jets of Indian Airforce (IAF) supported by Israeli drones, 33 were French Rafael, and 30 were SU-30 MKI (two pilots).
The ace jets of PAF were Chinese J-10C fitted with PL-15 missiles and JF -17 Thunder jets. China extended its satellite communications facility to Pakistan, while PAF had already perfected its electronic warfare systems and jamming techniques.
Pakistan’s Stupendous Response
The people and the armed forces of Pakistan responded with unity, valour, and an unyielding sense of purpose. A complete synergy between the three services was the hallmark of air operations.
In the four hour air duel between the IAF and PAF, 80 jets of India and 40 jets of Pakistan, (100 versus 40 pilots), fought the air war remaining within their airspaces, and there was no dogfight. India’s cyber space was completely paralysed, radars were jammed, and Indian pilots blinded.
PAF pilots succeeded in knocking down six IAF jets, including three Rafael, and gained air superiority in half an hour. In the four hours air combat, PAF dropped missile tonnage across the border and LoC two times more than in the 17-day 1965 war. IAF shifted its fighter jets to airbases 1500 km in depth and was grounded till 8 May.
How PAF excelled over IAF?
From 1990 onwards, PAF gave preference to indigenous production of jets, drones, radars, technology, and electronic warfare (EW). It established Cyber Command, Space Command & National Aerospace Science & Technology Park. Artificial intelligence and EW became central to a new art of warfare, aimed at confusing, deceiving, disabling, and disrupting the enemy before it could respond. These war winning facilities are now being developed by the other two services.
Operation Bunyan Um Marsus
In response to India’s drone attacks on May 8 and BrahMos missiles attacks on PAF airbases and military installations on the night of 9/10 May, Operation Bunyan Um Marsus was launched in the early hours of May 10. Pakistan’s air and ground forces pounced upon India, pounding the Indian military with brutal impunity and played havoc.
Pakistan ground forces gained space across the border in Bahawalpur and Sialkot sectors. In the Kashmir sector, 124 Indian posts were captured along Jhelum Valley and towards Jammu. Some posts were vacated because of being non- tactical and untenable, but others have been retained, and the two 8-10 – – to km deep salients have helped in improving the defensive posture.
Turkish drones reached up to Delhi, and Gujarat and PAF jets penetrated deep into IOK and bombed Srinagar. In desperation, IAF had to scramble its jets to save the capital. PAF jets returned home unscathed.
IAF’s losses are much more than six. There are credible reports that 7 more Rafael were damaged. One squadron of MiG-30 at Pathankot airbase, which was destroyed by PAF, is missing.
India Begged for Ceasefire
All the grandiose plans of India and the intrigues of its strategic allies fell flat in the face of ferocious responses by Pakistan armed forces. India suffered one setback after the other. On the 4th day, the might of the Indian military was gasping for life and begging for a ceasefire.
Effects of Four-day War
India’s Operation Sindhoor was a complete failure, which shattered the elan and prestige of India and its hegemonic designs in South Asia.
India was outshined, outperformed, and outclassed in each and every department of warfare and even in media, information, and diplomatic fronts. The public support to the Pakistan armed forces was unprecedented.
The four-day war gelled and united the divided Pakistani nation, and all the elements of national power were in sync and on one page.
In the shortest Indo-Pakistan war, Pakistan broke several records and achieved many milestones. Pakistan achieved air superiority, technical and technological superiority, and conventional superiority over a six times bigger enemy.
PAF humbled ten times bigger in size IAF, which is unique.
Pakistan’s deterrence was not only fully restored but further boosted.
Pakistan’s Operation Marka e Haq was a resounding victory. When seen in context with the completely changed environment in Bangladesh, it balmed our wounds of 1971 defeat and also fully reinvigorated Two-Nation theory.
Pakistan emerged with honour, and its image and reputation scaled new heights. Field Marshal Asim Munir’s status has risen high.
Strategic Effects
The myth of India’s conventional superiority and Modi’s political swagger collapsed.
The stunning victory electrified the whole Muslim Ummah, and even the worst critics couldn’t refrain from applauding Pakistan.
The Islamic world, tilted towards India,
now looks at Pakistan with awe and respect.
Attitudes of Arabs and the Western powers towards Pakistan have changed from arrogance and prejudice to amiability and affability.
Pakistan has won the everlasting friendship of China, Turkiye and Azerbaijan, the love of the persecuted people of IOK and Gaza, respect of the Muslim world, and silent admiration of the western world and the critics.
Pakistan’s enhanced prestige has had a positive effect 6 Afghanistan and Iran. Both have agreed to rein in Pakistan – specific terrorist groups – and not to allow their soils to be used for cross-border terrorism.
Central Asian States, South Asian States, Iran, Arab Gulf States, and the African Union are keen to enlarge their trade relations and defence cooperation with Pakistan. Even the US is desirous of mutually beneficial trade tariffs and trade.
China will be upgrading its economic and defence ties with Pakistan. It has announced delivery of 30 JF-35A stealth jets to Pakistan. It will provide the latest PL-17 missiles, KJ radars, and Chinese THAAD.
CPEC is protected with HQ -19 iron shield, which isn’t just a missile shield — it’s Pakistan’s entry into space-denial warfare. Services of China’s Yaogan and Gaofen satellites are available to Pakistan to monitor Indian activities round the clock.
By acquiring anti satellite capabilities and ballistic missile intercept technology, Pakistan now holds the power to neutralize India’s Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) backbone in orbit — and blind its precision-strike complex before it can even engage. These acquisitions would change the power dynamics in favour of Pakistan.
Pakistan-China iron brotherhood has now transformed into full spectrum fusion, and Pakistan is its only privileged ally privy to China’s latest weapon systems and technology.
China, being the upper riparian, will avert India’s threat of blocking Indus water flow to lower riparian Pakistan.
China, Pakistan, Afghanistan trilateral meeting in Beijing on May 22 was a turning point, which united the three neighbours into the Eurasian nexus, connecting China with Central Asia, and Pakistan with the Middle East.
India’s Admittance of Defeat & Weaknesses
IAF’s jet losses were admitted by Indian army chief of defence staff, BJP leader Subramanyam Swami, Shev Sena, India’s literary circles, and the cross section of Indian society.
The trust deficit between India and France has widened and has given rise to an acrimonious debate. The future of Rafael is hanging in the balance. Modi is no longer the darling of the West but is now seen as a liability.
The victory of Pakistan aided by China in all likelihood would hasten the shifting of the economic pivot from the West to the East, realignments of Asian countries towards China, Russia, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Brazil India , and ultimately the change of world order.
Near nuclearization of Iran has made the option of direct intervention of the US and Israel in Iran difficult.
Aligned nuclear Pakistan-Iran would have an effect upon the war in Gaza, West Bank, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and politics of the Middle East.
India in a Quandary
India is in a quandary. Its western patrons have become lukewarm in their support. The US is hesitant to honour its deal of F-35s. The Israeli, 6 Russian weaponry and technologies are humbled by China.
It will take a decade or so for India to change from Russian to Western defence technology, and that much time to overcome the shortage of pilots and their defence fault lines.
The political fortunes of Modi and his party are in doldrums, and demand for Modi’s accountability and resignation is getting louder in India.
With these grave shortfalls, it is next to impossible for India to opt for a speedy second round war with Pakistan.
China and Pakistan jointly can rein in India’s penchant for jingoism, war mongering, and water terrorism. In the wake of India drying up River Chenab, the next war could be on water.
Final Outcome of India’s Exterior Maneuver
A total of 59 delegates were sent to 33 countries as part of India’s desperate diplomatic outreach to sell the so-called “truth” about Operation Sindoor around the world.
They were given the ‘Mission Impossible’ of projecting, defeated India as a winner, and Pakistan, which had outperformed India in the war, as a defeated country. They were asked to use their glib tongues to paint Pakistan as a terrorist state .
Indian delegates couldn’t make any headway diplomatically since India has become a lame horse, and they had to eat a humble pie.
Why India Couldn’t make a Diplomatic Breakthrough
“Victory has many fathers and defeat is an orphan.”
For too long, the West has been doggedly supporting the vile acts of India and defending its crimes against humanity. It always supported India’s false flag operations and its false narratives without providing a shred of evidence.
For the first time, the Western world is looking at the frayed politics of South Asia differently.
One reason for the change in their attitudes could be Pakistan’s victory, and the other could be the genocidal war in Gaza, in which India closely collaborated with Israel and pursued similar policies in IOK
Impact on Pakistan
The changed tidings are bound to have a salutary impact upon Pakistan’s ruling regime, Pakistan’s economy, and will have a negative impact upon the political fortunes of Imran Khan and his party
The incumbent regime of Pakistan and the military will be walking on a tightrope until Pakistan achieves self-sufficiency in economics, overcomes terrorism, achieves internal unity, and sobers down irrational and irresponsible India.
Loss of support of Afghanistan and Iran to the terrorist groups and of safe sanctuaries will dig the last nail in the coffin of foreign sponsored terrorism.
Announcement of verdicts by the military courts against the 9 May culprits would hasten the demise of PTI.
Pakistan’s Economic Gains
- World Bank committed a $40 billion investment in Pakistan.
Russia signed a $2.6 billion deal with Pakistan.
Trump has developed a soft corner for Pakistan and wants to enhance trade.
Azerbaijan signed a $6 billion deal with Pakistan.
— A breakthrough in the Iran-Pakistan relationship. Iran offered an additional $10 billion for trade expansion. - Pakistan becomes co-signatory to China’s International Organization for Mediation.
Kuwait has opened its borders for Pakistani workers. - Afghanistan-Pakistan mediation talks achieve a breakthrough.
Turkey prepares to announce a multi-billion-dollar EV partnership with Pakistan. - Several global partners are eyeing Pakistan for joint ventures (JVs).
Conclusion
Pakistan fought brilliantly at a tactical level for three days. It did exceedingly well at the operational level on the 4th day. It kept its strategic patience intact and restored the deterrence. The limited war was Pakistan’s comprehensive victory.
At all levels of escalation ladder , Pakistan armed forces displayed professionalism & patience and proved to the world as a responsible state.
“This war was Pakistan’s victory. India misjudged and underestimated Pakistan. It’s time for India to change the way it sees Pakistan”. Christophe Jaffrelot, French political scientist
