Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)

Post-Soviet Reordering

The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 transformed the world from a bipolar to a unipolar system. The US emerged as the sole superpower, determined to enforce its global hegemony. Islam was portrayed as the main challenger to the Western-dominated order, laying the groundwork for interventions in Muslim-majority countries.

Rise of Regionalism

In reaction, Russia, China, and Central Asian states sought a collective platform to resist US dominance and ensure regional stability. This led to the formation of the Shanghai Five in 1996, which evolved into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in 2001.

Strategic Objectives

The SCO was conceived as a bulwark against terrorism, separatism, and extremism, but gradually expanded into economic, political, and security domains. Its membership today — including Pakistan, India, Iran, and Central Asian Republics — makes it the world’s largest regional organisation in terms of geography and population.

The SCO is not merely a security alliance; it is emerging as an engine of Eurasian connectivity. With China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Russia’s energy resources, Iran’s strategic location, and Pakistan’s transit potential, the SCO holds the capacity to reshape trade, security, and power dynamics across Eurasia.

By the late 1990s, China became the chief competitor and rival of the USA. The resurgence of Russia under Putin was also viewed as a possible future threat.

The US Objectives of 9/11

To maintain its global hegemony; to contain China and Russia; to keep Global South weak and dependent; to undermine Islam through media; to pulverise selected Muslim States through invasions, proxy wars and regime changes. Seven Muslim States were destroyed in the ME.

Their future targets are Iran and Pakistan.

Their overall objective is to keep milking the Global South and keep it weak and dependent.

China-Russia Rapprochement

It was in the wake of emerging threats that China-Russia rapprochement took place, which morphed into strategic partnership. It helped in infusing new life into SCO, capable of integrating Asian Continent and to get able to counter the Western threats.

Significance of SCO

The platform of SCO boosted by Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), SCO Bank and BRICS is now in a position to challenge the unilateralism of Global North led by G-7 as well as the unjust International Order.

Establishment of SCO

SCO was founded by China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan , Kazakhstan, Tajikistan in 1996 to foster regional cooperation in the post Soviet era. It was formally established on June 15, 2001 in Shanghai in which Uzbekistan also joined. It was evolved to build mutual trust and regional cooperation.

The rise of Sunni Islamic radicalism in Afghanistan and Shiite radicalism in Iran which impacted Central Asia and the three Communist States (Russia, China and North Korea) was one of the reasons to build a defensive platform.

The other matter of concern was the US desire to enhance its influence in the minerals rich Central Asia and to curtail the influence of Russia and China.

Rising India and its collaboration with the USA and Israel to undercut China’s interests was another factor.

Core Objective of SCO

The core objective of SCO was to safeguard regional peace, security, stability, and to strengthen political, economic, scientific and technical cooperation. It was also designed to combat terrorism, radicalism as well as to shape a new equitable international order.

Aim and Objectives of SCO

To foster peace, cooperation, transparency, friendship, shared economic growth and benefits, peaceful environment, connectivity, promotion of trade, unity and Multipolarity.

Over a period of time, its membership has increased to 8, and it has 4 observer members, and 6 dialogue partners. Pakistan and india became members on June 9, 2017, and Belarus on July 4, 2024. The future members are Turkey and Iran.

Evolution of SCO

SCO has evolved into a multilateral organisation encompassing diverse fields and has emerged as the largest and most populous regional cooperation organisation in the world covering three fifths of Eurasian Continent, and with a population of three billion. It represents 20% of the world’s GDP and 42% of the world’s population.

It is rapidly growing under the ‘Shanghai Spirit’ infused by President Xi Jinping, which envisages treating SCO members equally regardless of their size and strength. Emphasis is on mutual respect, fairness and justice. It emphasizes resolution of conflicts and issues through dialogue, consultation and cooperation.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

BRI, initiated by President Xi Jinping in 2013 has six corridors, of which three originate from Central Asia, and the fourth passes through Pakistan, called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It is the flagship project of BRI and acts as the fulcrum. It has been extended to Afghanistan and will soon be connected with landlocked six Central Asian Republics (CARs), and Russia is likely to join it.

By virtue of its geographic location, Pakistan holds the key and can become the hub of economic activities and coordinator of supply chains for the whole region.

Future Goals of SCO

Make BRI fully functional and according priority to Gwadar Port.
Complete projects of Phase 2 of CPEC with speed.
Remove bottlenecks in the way of progress by improving service structure.
Security.
Counterterrorism. For this, make effective use of the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan platform.
Extension of CPEC .
Work for the change of Global World Order.

25th Birthday of SCO

SCO celebrated its 25th birthday on August 31st and it ended on Sept 01. It was timed with a Summit and a glamorous military parade on 3rd Sept at a time when China’s military and economic power rose to dizzying heights, and the US- NATO power declined and its glamour dimmed.

SCO steered by China and Russia is now in a position to break the lordship of the USA, and the monopoly of the weaponized economic tools of the World Bank, IMF, the US dollar and sanctions .

President Xi gave a call for a new security and economy order, rooted in multilateralism and free from hegemony.

The Summit gave an opportunity to the PM of Pakistan to articulate core national concerns and highlight India’s involvement in state terrorism and water terrorism. His forceful speech helped in placing the two core issues on the regional agenda.

The SCO leaders jointly condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations,  stressing that terrorism must not be used as a tool for political gains. It vindicated Pakistan’s consistent stance that it had been the chief victim of terrorism sponsored by India, suffering 90,000 human casualties and 152 billion dollars financial losses.

Indo-Pakistan War and its Effects

The four-day war between Pakistan and India has changed the regional and global dynamics. New alignments are emerging. Pakistan has brought about this phenomenal change and it is seen as a Net Regional Stabiliser.

India on the other hand has fallen from the grace of the US-led West and is seen as a villain. India shining has lost its shine.

The US, Russia, CARs, Iran, ME, and Europe are keen to develop close ties with Pakistan. Donald Trump declared Pakistan a peaceful and responsible State and expressed his eagerness to restore strategic ties.

Extraordinary warm reception was accorded to Field Marshal Asim Munir on his two visits to the USA. He had a key role in saving the country from defaulting, winning the war against India, and in uniting the divided nation. He was instrumental in changing the perceptions both at home and abroad from negative to positive through skilful military diplomacy and his honesty of purpose, and raising the image of Pakistan.

India under Narendra Modi finds itself mired in difficulties. It can no longer sell its fictitious narratives to pose itself as the victim of terrorism, since the world has finally seen its ugly face hidden behind the masks of secularism, democracy and human rights.

India has not only been constantly bleeding Pakistan with the help of paid proxies TTP and BLA from 2002 onwards, it is also resorting to water terrorism.

Modi’s Deepening Troubles

Modi has been left high and dry by his benefactor Trump and is on his hit list. The US has imposed 50% tariffs on India in its bid to restrain India from importing crude oil from Russia, and becoming a party to de-dollarisation through BRICS.

Badly mauled, humiliated and jilted Modi finds himself in hot waters because of mounting internal and external troubles. If his party loses Bihar elections, it could be his Waterloo.

Modi’s Bid to Woo China

In desperation, Modi has tilted heavily towards Russia, and is trying to win over China and forge a strategic relationship. This ambition propelled him to attend the SCO Summit after a lapse of seven years.

Having had erratic ties since 2013, this sudden display of warmth suggests a wider geopolitical shift that could have ripple effects far beyond Asia.

After the visit of China’s Foreign Minister to India in Aug to melt the ice, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 31,  ahead of the Summit. Both agreed that China and India are partners, not rivals.

Modi said that India-China cooperation will make the 21st century a genuine “Asian century.” He said, India is prepared to seek a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable settlement of the boundary question with China, and develop bilateral ties from a long-term perspective.

Xi told Modi that China and India are each other’s development opportunities rather than threats. He added, China and India are important members of the Global South, and shoulder the crucial responsibility of improving the well-being of the two peoples, promoting the solidarity and rejuvenation of developing countries, advancing the progress of human society, and becoming friendly neighbours to help each other succeed.

Contrasting Welcome

Contrasting welcome accorded to Shahbaz Sharif (SS) and Modi at Tianjin was visible to the world. SS was welcomed with great enthusiasm as a victor, and Modi , as the PM of a defeated nation. The spotlight was on SS and Modi was ignored.

An image claiming that drones were used to welcome PM Modi in China was circulated on Indian accounts. The factual story is that the image was from a drone light show in Nan’an District, Chongqing, China on April 19, 2025 unrelated to Modi.

Conflicting China-India Interests

India is averse to BRI and particularly CPEC which it fears would roll back its imperialist ambitions. It has not only refused to join CPEC, but has been making deliberate efforts to scuttle CPEC through proxies.

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), launched in September 2023, was designed to counterbalance China’s BRI by linking India to Europe through Gulf trade routes.

India’s investment in Iran’s Chabahar port — envisioned as a counter to China’s role in Pakistan’s Gwadar Port under the CPEC — has also languished due to US sanctions.

China has a 25-year strategic pact with Tehran and plans to link all Iranian ports to the BRI. Cooperation here could finally give India overland access into Central Asia and the ME.

BRICS and the SCO have struggled under the weight of India-China and India-Pakistan rivalries.

For India, the ME is indispensable: It supplies the bulk of the country’s energy needs and hosts more than nine million Indian expatriates whose remittances support the economy.

China’s dominant economic presence has overshadowed India’s more transactional engagement focused on oil, trade and its diaspora.

Prospects of India – China Thaw

A 2024 Tsinghua University survey summarized by Chatham House highlighted the perception gap: Only 15.7% of Chinese respondents saw India as very or substantially influential in world politics, while 43% viewed it as less influential or irrelevant.

Risks and Skepticism

Many doubt the reset’s durability. Ashok Swain, a professor at Sweden’s Uppsala University, told Al-Monitor that the rapprochement “reflects Modi’s vulnerability rather than a genuine strategic convergence.”

With China deeply entrenched in the ME through energy deals, infrastructure and even diplomacy, Swain argued that India risks remaining a “secondary player” dependent on remittances, oil flows and selective defense ties.

“Beijing has shown no willingness to accommodate India’s ambitions,” he said, suggesting that Modi’s outreach “underscored India’s weakness at a time when ties with Washington, the key power shaping Middle Eastern geopolitics, are fraying.”

Trust Deficit

The trust deficit — rooted in border disputes, past military clashes and mutual suspicions of encirclement — remains the biggest obstacle to genuine partnership. Without mutual trust and recognition, any reset may remain shallow, limiting its potential to transform the ME balance of power.

India cannot find an alternative to the USA which remained its steadfast guarantor and helped it in becoming the strongest economic and military power in South Asia and diligently covered up all its sins against humanity.

As a last ditch effort, Modi has thrown a bait of zero tariffs on imports from the USA, but it may not placate Trump.

Like the US and Israel, India is also an imperialist and expansionist power believing in bullying, war mongering and intrigues. These policies go against the conceptual policies of China, and hence cannot become natural strategic partners.

India- China Ambitions are Divergent

Owing to its ambitious nature and quest for becoming a leading regional economic power and a global power, it will never be at ease with China, which is well set to become the number one economic power by 2028.

Since India is unlikely to change its behaviour and attitude, its strategic partnership with China in all probability will remain confined to trade and commerce only.

China will not oblige India by cutting off technology supplies to Pakistan, or forgiving its penchant for disturbing regional peace.

Conclusion

Despite hurdles, the SCO symbolises the gradual erosion of unipolarity and the rise
China as the leader of the Global South. The world has shifted from Unipolarity to Multipolarity and the pivot of economics has also moved from the west to the east.

Pakistan must take full advantage of the changed environment, and the positive outcome of the SCO Summit to draw economic benefits from all the windows of opportunity.

It should put its house in order by improving governance and financial management.

Bridge the societal divides, plug all holes of corruption, Curtail wasteful expenditures, adopt simplicity and austerity.

Carry out structural reforms, and make accountability effective.

It should avoid rhetoric and make all- out efforts to improve the economy and make Pakistan economically self-reliant.

Political stability and security are vital for external investments and economic growth.

Friendship with China must be deepened and consolidated.

The author Brigadier (Retd.) Asif Haroon Raja, is a war veteran, defence and political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, and ex-Chairman of the Thinkers Forum Pakistan. He is currently Director of the Measac Research Centre, Patron-in-Chief of the CDS Think Tank, and Administrator of Fact Check. He frequently appears on TV talk shows and delivers lectures on strategic affairs.

*The views and opinions expressed herein, and any references, are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the Centre for Development and Stability (CDS).