The power of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, which lasted for 24 years, appeared to have declined. News has emerged through Russian media that the Syrian president has left Damascus and been granted asylum in Russia by the Russian authorities. Videos have become viral on social media indicating that official institutions in the city have been abandoned by Syrian officials.
Rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have stormed Aleppo and destroyed statues of Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad, and advanced into key areas such as Hama, Daraa, and Homs, a gateway to the capital Damascus.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is an offshoot of Al Qaeda, several other extremists and sectarian groups are merged into it. HTS was established under the name, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011. It was a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda. Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani is the leader of HTS. But al-Jawlani publicly broke lines with Al-Qaeda dissolved Jabhat al-Nusra, and established a new organization, which took the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. HTS was proscribed as a terrorist group by the United Nations (UN), the United States (US), Turkiye and other countries.
Before toppling the Assad regime, Jolani in his exclusive interview with CNN told that HTS’s ambitions are nothing less than bringing an end to the Assad regime. He talked about plans to establish a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”
Rebellions, initially concentrated in the northwest of Syria have gained power in the south with the involvement of factions of the Free Syrian Army. This situation was further complicated by Israel’s launch of several attacks on the Assad regime from the Golan Heights. This left Assad, along with his international and regional allies—Russia and Hezbollah—facing significant challenges. But, the western coastal region of Syria, is still a stronghold of support for the regime. Russia maintains three military bases here, including a naval base in Tartus and an airbase near Antakya.
The coastal area where Russian military bases are installed holds significant strategic importance for Russia, Iran, and Syria. With the fall of Homs and Damascus, the western coastal region of Syria can lose its vital supply lines. This region serves as an important trade route and also houses the Alawite population, including Assad’s family and allies. This Alawite population forms the backbone of the regime’s support. Therefore, the loss of this region would be catastrophic for the Assad regime and its allies.
The current Syria conflict situation is severely fragmented. Kurdish forces under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), control the northeastern regions, while dozens of other factions, such as HTS, operate across the country. Moreover, Kurdish groups are establishing checkpoints in areas outside HTS control, further thwarting the situation.
Syria’s demographic makeup has played a major role in its prolonged conflict. Sunni Muslims, who constitute 70-80% of the population, are ruled by the Alawite minority, which makes up 10-13 %. This imbalance dates back to 1970, when Hafez al-Assad, an Alawite, seized power and established minority dominance over the Sunni majority. The Iranian Revolution further bolstered the Alawite regime.
The outcome of the Syrian conflict has far-reaching implications for regional players like Russia, Iran, Turkiye, and Israel. Iran, in particular, has invested heavily in Syria to maintain its strategic web of influence across the Middle East. A defeat in Syria would sever critical supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, and Ansarullah in Yemen, undermining Iran’s military ambitions. The loss of its military bases and advisory positions in Syria would also be a significant blow.
Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia view the collapse of the Assad regime as a means to curb Iranian influence in the region. For Russia, the loss of Syria would crumble its foothold in the Middle East.
It will reduce its strategic and economic influence despite retaining its bases on the coast. Turkiye, hosting over 20 million Syrian refugees has its stakes. It opposes a destabilized border filled with hostile factions and seeks a peaceful southern frontier.
On the other hand, people have celebrated the end of the long rule of the Assad regime in streets across Syria. However, the future of Syria appears ambiguous and the potential for a power vacuum can lead to a further bloodbath. Equal power-sharing among factions like the Free Syrian Army, the Kurdish forces, Tahrir al-Sham, and the remnants of the Syrian Arab Army is essential for lasting peace.
Without this, the post-Assad era risks plunging into sectarian strife. There is a dire need for peace and stability in Syria and its neighbors. The international community must prioritize a balanced resolution to avoid another prolonged conflict in the region. As Abbas Nasir, the former editor of DAWN, rightly said in his article “Gaza genocide, degraded Axis,” this new front in the Middle East has drawn attention away from the ongoing genocide in Gaza.
