Taiwan Issue: Emergence, Present, and the Future Ahead

The Taiwan issue has become one of the most sensitive topics in world politics. It is not only a matter of dispute between Taiwan and mainland China, but also a question that directly affects the United States, Asia-Pacific security, and the global economy. Many experts agree that Taiwan is the likeliest flash point for a major U.S.-China conflict.

How the Taiwan Dispute Emerged

In the first half of the twentieth century, China faced a civil war between the Nationalist government and the Communist forces. During World War II, the Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-shek, were allies of the United States. But after the war, they lost the civil war to Mao Zedong’s Communists. In 1949, the Communists established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Beijing, while the Nationalists retreated to Taiwan, setting up their own government known as the Republic of China (ROC).

From that time, both sides claimed to be the real China. The PRC never ruled Taiwan but still considers it a breakaway province that must eventually be unified with the mainland. Taiwan, on the other hand, built its own political system, became democratic, and slowly developed a separate identity.

Taiwan’s Political Reality

Today Taiwan has a population of around 23 million and a vibrant democracy. Its political parties have different approaches to cross-strait relations. The Kuomintang (KMT) follows the idea of “one China, different interpretations,” believing that dialogue and closer ties with Beijing are the best way forward. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), however, says Taiwan is already a sovereign state under the name of the Republic of China, and therefore does not need to declare independence.

The 1992 Consensus was an understanding reached between both sides to continue relations under a One China framework, but its meaning remains disputed. For the PRC, it means eventual reunification. For the KMT, it means “one China” with room for Taiwan’s interpretation. For the DPP, it is irrelevant and outdated.

Beijing has also proposed the “one country, two systems” model, similar to Hong Kong, but this idea is rejected by most Taiwanese people after seeing Beijing’s clampdown on Hong Kong’s freedoms.

China’s Position

Beijing maintains a firm stance that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, and President Xi Jinping has repeatedly declared that reunification is inevitable. While China emphasizes its preference for peaceful unification, it has never ruled out the use of military force to achieve this goal.

In recent years, Beijing has escalated its military activities around Taiwan, including frequent incursions by fighter jets into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, naval drills in nearby waters, and surveillance missions using drones. These maneuvers are seen as a show of strength and a warning to both Taiwan and its international supporters, particularly the United States.

The Role of the United States

The United States played a key role in Taiwan’s history. From 1954 to 1979, it had a defense treaty with Taiwan and recognized the ROC as the legal government of China. But in 1979, Washington shifted recognition to Beijing under its “One China policy.” At the same time, the U.S. passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which allows America to continue unofficial ties with Taiwan, sell arms, and support the island’s defense.

This policy is described as strategic ambiguity. The U.S. acknowledges China’s position but does not accept it completely. It does not openly promise to defend Taiwan, but it also does not deny the possibility. President Joe Biden has at times said the U.S. would defend Taiwan in case of attack, but his officials later clarified that official policy has not changed.

Recent years have seen stronger U.S.-Taiwan ties. Former President Trump approved billions in arms sales and eased restrictions on contacts with Taiwan. Under Biden, military support has continued. American senators, such as Roger Wicker and Deb Fischer, have visited Taiwan recently, declaring support for Taiwan’s right to self-determination. Beijing, however, strongly criticizes such visits and calls them interference in its internal matters.

International Situation

Taiwan is not a United Nations member because of pressure from Beijing, but it is part of many regional and international organizations such as the WTO, ADB, and APEC. Only 11 countries and the Vatican recognize Taiwan diplomatically.

In recent years, Honduras and Nauru cut ties with Taiwan and recognized China, showing Beijing’s success in isolating the island diplomatically.

Countries near Taiwan, such as the Philippines, are also nervous. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr recently said his country could be dragged into a Taiwan conflict because of its closeness and large Filipino community there. China strongly criticized this statement.

Taiwan’s Civil Defence

In response to China’s growing military power, Taiwan is also preparing. Recently, large-scale civil defense drills were held across Taiwan. In these exercises, sirens rang, people rushed to shelters, and hospitals treated mock casualties. These drills are meant to prepare citizens for a possible Chinese attack and show the seriousness of the threat.

Pros and Cons of Taiwan’s Position

Pros:

• Taiwan enjoys strong democracy and freedom, unlike mainland China.
• It has support from the United States and other Western powers.
• Economically, Taiwan is a global leader in semiconductors and technology, making it strategically important for the world.
• Its people have a strong sense of identity and unity against outside threats.

Cons:

• Taiwan is diplomatically isolated, with very few formal allies.
• China’s growing military power creates constant pressure and risk of war.
• Dependence on U.S. support can also be risky, as American policy is based on ambiguity.
• Any conflict could severely damage Taiwan’s economy and society.

The Future Prospects

The future of Taiwan remains uncertain. Three possible scenarios are widely discussed.

• Status Quo Continues: This is the most likely scenario in the short term. Taiwan maintains its de facto independence without declaring official independence, while China continues to claim the island but avoids full-scale war. The U.S. supports Taiwan’s defense, and the uneasy balance continues.
• Peaceful Settlement: If dialogue is revived, both sides may find a formula to reduce tensions, though it is difficult because Taiwan rejects “one country, two systems” and China rejects permanent independence.
• Conflict: The most dangerous possibility is a Chinese military attack. This would likely involve the United States, Japan, and maybe the Philippines, leading to a regional or even global war. The consequences for trade, security, and human lives would be devastating.

Conclusion

The Taiwan issue is not just about one island and one mainland. It is about democracy versus authoritarianism, regional security, global trade, and U.S.-China rivalry. Taiwan’s emergence as a self-ruled democracy has created pride among its people but also a serious challenge for Beijing. While Taiwan wants peace, it also wants freedom.

China wants unification, but Taiwan resists. The United States wants stability, but its strategic ambiguity adds both protection and uncertainty.

The future will depend on wise leadership, careful diplomacy, and whether dialogue can be preferred over confrontation. The Taiwan Strait today remains one of the most dangerous points of tension in the world, and what happens here will shape the course of international politics in the years ahead.

The author Anum Malik, is affiliated with the State News Agency and contributes her research to the think tank, CDS.

*The views and opinions expressed herein, and any references, are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the Centre for Development and Stability (CDS).