The United States (U.S.) is set to carry out its general election on November 5, 2024 across the country. The Former President Mr. Donald J. Trump will face the incumbent U.S. President Mr. Joe Biden. With a well-organized election campaign gaining rapid support and popularity, trump seems to be heading back to the white house as U.S. president for the second time. However, Trump’s potential return to the presidency has raised significant questions regarding future U.S. policy towards the on-going Russia-Ukraine war and US-Iran relations.
Trump’s Second Term and the Russia-Ukraine War
The former U.S. President has repeatedly remarked that he will end the Russia-Ukraine war with-in 24 hours if he becomes the president for a second time. However, he has remained silent on how he intends to fulfill this objective with certainty. Trump has been a critic of the incumbent U.S. government for its poor policies and consideration of providing Ukraine NATO membership, which he believes has incentivized Russian aggression in Ukraine. He has also been skeptical of U.S. aid to Ukraine in the current war, and has urged the NATO countries to contribute more. Despite ambiguities about how trump would actually respond to the war, there are certain ways in which he might be able to achieve his goal.
In June of this year, during a meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave two conditions that can set ground for negotiations to end the war.
- Ukraine will withdraw its soldiers from the four regions that Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk.
- Ukraine will officially give-up its ambition to join NATO.
During the first Presidential debate held on June 27, 2024, Trump rejected the conditions proposed by Putin and regarded them as “not acceptable.”
The withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the four regions would ultimately lead to a Russian victory, allowing Russia to annex these regions. It will also deteriorate the reputation of U.S. and its NATO allies, making them appear vulnerable and weak. Therefore, neither U.S. nor its allies would support the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces, because it defies the collective interests of U.S. and NATO. However, in future, Trump may consider compelling Ukraine to give up its ambitions to join NATO in order to end the war.
According to experts and many former aides, Trump is not in the favor of expanding NATO further eastward in Europe. This also puts the future membership of Ukraine and Georgia into question. The increasing cooperation between the U.S. and Ukraine, as well as the ambitions of Ukraine to become a NATO member have been deemed as an existential threat to Russia’s sovereignty by the Russian government. Therefore, assuring that Ukraine will not become part of NATO can de-escalate the situation and end the war. Such course of action is also a viable option for other NATO members.
The on-going war has drained the economic resources of the NATO countries in their bid to support Ukraine. In 2023, Germany contributed around $68 billion to NATO which is second only to U.S. spending. Similarly, the United Kingdom has also provided approximately $65 billion. These spendings have forced these countries to ignore many crucial domestic problems and challenges.
The NATO leaders are also facing domestic pressure due to rising inflation, the energy crisis and other issues. Thus, they have to continuously convince their masses to support the on-going war. Olaf Scholz, the current chancellor of Germany has been doubtful of Ukraine’s NATO membership. Speaking to a gathering in Berlin, Scholz stated, “Ukraine will probably not become a NATO member within the next 30 years.” Germany is one of the most important supporters of Ukraine in the war. It has provided billions worth of aid, tanks, artillery shells, and munitions. However, such statements depict that the supporting countries might have to give up their support if the status quo remains.
The rejection of NATO membership for Ukraine will help relieve the economic burden on NATO countries. It will also not affect the interests of U.S. and its allies, thus satisfying Putin’s second demand for negotiations. Donald Trump has not yet clearly stated his options to end the war, but the U.S. withdrawing its support for Ukraine to join NATO can be a way forward for Trump.
