Since the sudden regime change in Dhaka, the Indian political and military leaders, Indian media, academia and RAW are in a state of acute anxiety, bordering depression.
India has suffered two major strategic setbacks this year. The first was BJP’s loss of political power in the June 2024 elections. A bigger jolt came in August when the strongest and most trusted ally Bangladesh went out of India’s hands because of the sudden fall and exit of Hasina Wajid.
She had ruled BD with an iron hand from 2009 to first week of Aug this year at a stretch and had established a One-party rule. India under the Modi and Hasina regime forged strategic partnership and had also linked the two countries with two railway lines. Both worked on the anti-Pakistan agenda in unison.
When Pakistan came on the world map on 14 Aug 1947, the Indian leaders chortled that it will repent its decision and will not survive longer than six months and would beg for reunion. Some said it was a big mistake of Mr. Jinnah. Nothing of the sort happened. India planned to avenge the vivisection of India by cutting Pakistan into two parts. To achieve this objective, East Pakistan was chosen because of its extreme vulnerability.
After the Indian victory in 1971, Indira Gandhi arrogantly stated that the Two-Nation theory was drowned in the Bay of Bengal. East Pakistan was separated through subversion and treachery.
This disfigurement of Two-Nation theory survived for about 54 years, during which BD was made into a vassal state of India and the minds of the people of BD were further filled with hatred against Pakistan.
The fake narratives against Pakistan spread by India and BD suddenly unravelled this month. BD under an interim regime headed by M. Yunis is anti-India and pro-Pakistan.
The current younger generation of BD has come to know that their elders were duped and betrayed by India, and the 1971 act was immoral. They have realised that if the AL and the Mukti Bahini had not changed sides, the Indian military despite it’s huge superiority in men and material, could never have defeated the Pakistani forces and the Ansars.
All the fabricated stories of massacre and rape of the Bengalis woven after 1971, painting Pak Army as a monster and India as the benign helper, have fallen flat. The level of anger of the younger generation in BD can be gauged from destruction of all the monuments and pictorials of Sheikh Mujib, ransacking of 1971 memorials and surrender ceremony portraits. This sort of fury was unleashed in Aug 1975, and now in Aug 2024. Both times the targets were Mujib, his daughter and AL and remnants of Mukti Bahni. Hatred for India can be judged from the emotions of the people, who blamed India for flooding their country deliberately and causing big damages to the properties and crops, and loss of lives.
For all practical purposes, Hasina has met her Waterloo and she can never return to resume politics in BD. She was lucky to be rescued by the army. The Awami League will remain a pariah party for a long time.
The undercurrent trends in BD do not bode well for India. All its investments in billions since 1947 have gone to waste. It is incurring a loss of 18 million dollars in trade daily. It will face the refugee influx of Hindu Bengalis. If the Indian govt stops them, it will face the wrath of its people. In BD, they will lead an insecure life.
The Hindu Bengali community in BD and AL and grandchildren of 1971war veterans would face tough times. The persecuted Biharis, Jamaat Islami and BNP would enjoy greater freedom and liberty of action. Interaction of BD with the seven sisters in NE India is likely to increase covertly. The Rohingyas languishing in sordid would get some reprieve.
There will be a regional turbulence in South Asia. A new era has begun in which BD will be closer to China, Nepal, Myanmar, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and it will distance itself from overbearing India.
BJP under Modi has been cut to size and it no longer wields absolute power. Its chief patron USA is itself in trouble. India’s chief rival China, is poised to become the leading economic power and the future super power.
Unless the Indian leadership ends its fascist, racist, militarist and megalomaniac policies, it could suffer more reverses in the coming future.
