Asif Haroon Raja
The Iran-USA war that started 28 Feb 2026 is now in a dangerous stalemate after an 8-month grinding conflict.
My assessment is that on all counts, Washington is actively considering the use of GBU-43/B MoAB, (Mother of All Bombs), the 9,800 kg / 22,000 lb largest non-nuclear bomb in US inventory, for strikes on Iran’s deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site & its energy infrastructure.
Reports from this week say the US has already shifted a few MoABs to Israel out of only 10 in its total inventory for this purpose.
Tehran in turn has formally complained to the UN Security Council naming MoAB specifically & threatened to unveil its own “Father of All Bombs”.
On the diplomacy side, Iran has rejected the US conveyed proposal via mediators & interlocutor shutting between Tehran & Washington.
Supreme National Security Council
Secretary Mohsen Rezaei told Pak envoys on 20 Oct: “Not even a tiny bit of enriched nuclear material will leave Iran”, calling 60% enriched uranium stockpile as “major asset and national wealth” & sacred as Iranian soil.
This is a redline, sovereignty issue. Iran also demands lifting of the US naval blockade of its ports, release of frozen assets, and end of sanctions before any talks.
Meanwhile US posture signals imminent escalation. On 21-22 Oct, State Dept ordered departure of all non essential staff & families from US residing in KSA, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan; both due to Houthi attacks on KSA & anticipation of Iranian retaliation.
Iranian professors close to the establishment are now openly stating that the Supreme Leader’s old fatwa against nuclear weapons is under review given the existential threat, indicating doctrinal shift.
What are the prospects before US Midterms (Nov 3, 2026) & Israeli Elections is another big Question.
The classic ‘October Surprise’ is on the cards. According to NYT, the US and Israel have already drawn detailed plans for a short, intensive operation against Iran’s nuclear, missile and energy infrastructure but will execute it after the US midterms.
White House is assembling three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, and fighter jets for early November. Trump had pledged not to strike before midterms for political reasons.
Before elections, we can expect a continued deterrent flights over Iraq & Syria, economic strangulation via blockade, & Houthi/Gulf escalation to justify action.
After Elections a paradigm shift can be expected if Republicans retain or gain. High probability of full-spectrum conventional strike with MOABs on Fordow-type sites and Kharg Island energy terminals to “push Iranian economy to brink and force concessions” .
But experts doubt MoAB can penetrate granite & requires vulnerable MC-130 delivery. Iranian retaliation will be against Gulf oil infrastructure and US bases, Keep Hormuz closed (through which 20% of world oil passes).
2nd possibility, If Democrats gain in both Houses, pressure for deal revival like JCPOA increases, but Iran’s sovereignty stance on uranium makes any transfer abroad impossible. The best case is dilution inside Iran under IAEA.
For Israel, Netanyahu meeting War Secretary Hegseth this week shows the Israeli timeline is linked to the US. Any post US election strike gives Netanyahu a win before Israeli elections, consolidating right wing support.
The bottom line is that this equation is now ‘Sovereignty vs Security’. Iran will not surrender a gram of 60% uranium. The US will not accept Iran keeping it.
Without a face saving formula e.g., dilution inside Iran under Russian/PAK/IAEA guarantee instead of transfer, makes US-Israel led kinetic action in Oct or Nov 2026 Surprise; highly likely.
A Forceful Plea for Peace and Restraint
Reports that the United States and Israel are preparing for renewed military strikes against Iran are deeply alarming. The world cannot afford another devastating war in an already volatile region.
The United Nations must rise to its responsibility and urgently press all parties to exercise maximum restraint. Another military campaign will not resolve the US-Iran confrontation; it risks triggering a wider cycle of destruction, retaliation and instability, with grave consequences for the entire world.
The Gulf States must speak with one voice and firmly, yet diplomatically, urge Washington to abandon any plan for renewed military action against Iran.
They must make it unmistakably clear that they will not willingly allow their region to become the battleground for another major power confrontation. Their populations, economies, energy infrastructure and vital maritime routes would be among the first to suffer the consequences.
The world is already paying a heavy price for war, inflation and economic uncertainty. Another conflict in the Gulf could disrupt global energy supplies, drive prices sharply higher, cripple trade and deepen the economic misery of millions, particularly in poor and developing countries.
The cost of another war would be borne not merely by governments, but by ordinary people who have neither caused these conflicts nor the power to stop them.
Washington and Tehran must recognise that military escalation offers no durable solution. Bombs may destroy infrastructure, kill people and deepen hostility, but they cannot secure lasting peace.
The longer diplomacy is sidelined, the greater the danger of miscalculation, uncontrolled escalation and a conflict that no party may be able to contain.
The time for decisive diplomatic intervention is now—not after another catastrophe.
The United Nations must act, the Gulf States must close ranks in the cause of peace, and the United States and Iran must return to serious negotiations before the window for diplomacy closes.
History will not judge the parties by the destruction they can inflict, but by the wisdom they demonstrate in preventing it.
The greatest victory would be to avert another war, save innocent lives and spare the world a fresh economic and humanitarian disaster.
Let reason prevail over force, diplomacy over confrontation, and peace over another senseless war.
About the Author
Brigadier (Retd) Asif Haroon Raja, SI (M) is a war veteran. He is Command and Staff Course and War Course qualified, holds an MSc in War Studies, and served as Defence Attaché in Egypt and Sudan, as well as Dean of the Corps of Military Attachés in Cairo. He commanded the largest brigade in Kashmir.
He is a defence, security, and geopolitical analyst, columnist, featured columnist of IntelDrop magazine Washington, author of five books, former Chairman of Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Patron-in-Chief of Centre for Development Studies Think Tank, Director of Meesakh Research Centre; he regularly appears on media platforms.
