As anticipated, Israel has commenced the air war against Iran. Iran’s official media has confirmed the blasts in Tehran, and Tel Aviv has also reconfirmed it. The US media reported that Israel had informed the White House before the attacks. The American officials stated that they are in the know of Israeli attacks in Iran and the evolving situation is being closely monitored. They added that the US has no role in the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) attacks on Iran.
According to the IDF, they have hit the installations of Revolutionary Pasdaran also called Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). And that the attacks on military installations were in retaliation to Iran’s attacks. The IDF stated that they are advancing towards Iran and its proxies and Israel’s defence systems have been fully operationalized and put on high alert.
Israeli officials have claimed that several targets have been struck inside Iran. After the attacks on Tehran, several areas were engulfed in fire. Five blasts were heard in Tehran and nearby Kurj city. The Arab media reported that sounds of blasts were heard near the IRGC Headd Quarter and near the airport. Additionally, bomb blasts were heard in the suburbs of Damascus.
Analysis
Israel has launched a counter-offensive in response to Iran’s missile and drone attacks on 1st October, which was also in response to Israeli air attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Hania in Tehran. Like Israel, Iran had also taken several weeks to react. Responses of both adversaries were restrained and controlled to avoid spillover.
On 1st October, Iran targeted Israel’s military targets only and achieved results. Hezbollah’s missiles had also penetrated Israel’s air defence systems and had hit targets in northern Israel. The vulnerability of the four-layered air defence system compelled Israel to seek the 2nd Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) with high-powered radar from the USA.
When Tel Aviv repeatedly vowed to avenge Iran’s air attacks and stepped up its offensive against southern Lebanon to eliminate the Hezbollah command structure, Iran’s leadership informed Washington that it wouldn’t retaliate if Israel confined its attacks to military targets only.
Once the US assured Israel that Iran wouldn’t retaliate, and it also received the 2nd THAAD from the US along with the American crew to operate it, Israel started striking military targets inside Iran.
I reckon this retaliation will be only for a few hours or a day or so, since much that Netanyahu desires to drag in Western forces, and the US and NATO would stay out of the Israeli-Iran war. Israel’s hands are full. It is engaged in bloody conflicts with Hamas in Gaza, with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and is facing missile attacks from Houthis in Yemen who have also quarantined the Red Sea and Bab Al Mandab choke point. The Syrian front is also hostile.
Without direct participation of Western powers, Israel will not risk opening another front with Iran, which is many times stronger than other fronts. Notwithstanding the restraints shown by the two adversaries, the Middle East is inching towards a bigger conflagration. More and more lethal weapons are being inducted in the war zones, and major sufferers are the hapless civilians.
Israel is showing no restraint in Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon. It has spread out its air attacks from southern to northern Lebanon, while its ground troops are creeping forward to seize southern Lebanon, which is the stronghold of Hezbollah. Main reasons behind Israel’s refusal to ceasefire or to stop the slaughter of people are continued funding and supply of arms by the US, the UK and EU, and Israel’s dream of establishing Greater Israel. Netanyahu’s political career is linked with the outcome of Gaza war, which so far is not going in his favor.
Since 7 Oct 2023, the US alone has provided 17.5 billion dollars’ worth of military assistance to Israel, and has also deployed its aircraft carriers and warships close to the war zone. It is quite surprising that in the face of extremely adverse odds, the resistance forces are inflicting casualties upon the IDF through ground actions and aerial strikes and are not giving up.
There is no letup in the Hamas fightback in spite of the loss of Ismail Hania and Yahya Sinwar. The latter was the most feared and wanted man and Israel had kept 10 million dollars as his head money. The leaders of Israel and the US had celebrated the martyrdom of Yahya Sinwar and had wishfully stated that Sinwar’s death would end the resistance movement and would help in ceasefire and return of Israeli hostages. Yahya Sinwar’s death was mourned in Gaza, in the Muslim world and the world over, since he had sacrificed his comforts and life for justice for the Palestinians. Khalil al-Hayya would most probably be the next leader of Hamas.
Imperialist Israel is wholly responsible for dehumanising the 2.3 million Palestinians living in Gaza and creating a highly dangerous situation. The US is equally guilty of fully supporting the genocidal war in Gaza. Both are committing heinous crimes against humanity and are war criminals.
