Asif Haroon Raja
US and Iran Reach Agreement
On roughly 40 occasions since March, President Donald Trump claimed to be close to a deal with Iran. After months of intermittent negotiations and repeated public claims by President Trump that an agreement was imminent, Washington and Tehran finally announced a ceasefire framework.
The US has released the full text of its 14-point “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU) with Iran which has been signed by the Presidents of the US and Iran and by the PM of Pakistan.
Key terms include:
- The US, Iran, and their allies agree to immediately and permanently end military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon
- The US and Iran agree to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and not interfere in each other’s internal affairs
- The US and Iran commit to negotiating and reaching a final deal within 60 days, unless mutually extended
- The US will begin removing its naval blockade immediately and fully end the blockade within 30 days
- Iran will use its best efforts to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days with no charge
- The US and regional partners will develop a mutually agreed plan of at least $300 billion for Iran’s reconstruction and economic development
- The US will work toward terminating all types of sanctions against Iran, including UN, IAEA, primary, and secondary sanctions
- Iran reaffirms that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons and agrees to address its enriched material stockpile under IAEA supervision
- Until a final deal is reached, Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, while the US will impose no new sanctions and deploy no additional forces
- The US Treasury will issue waivers for Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, derivatives, and associated banking, insurance, and transportation services
- The US will make frozen or restricted Iranian funds and assets fully available for use
- The US and Iran will establish an executive mechanism to monitor implementation of the MOU and future compliance with the final deal
- After signing the MOU and implementing key ceasefire, blockade, shipping, oil waiver, and asset-release provisions, the US and Iran will begin final deal negotiations
- The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution
A formal signing ceremony is expected to take place in Geneva on 19 June, although several contentious issues remain unresolved.
The signed MoU has helped in reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports marking the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the conflict began more than a hundred days ago.
The questions remain over how the MoU will be implemented and whether it can actually hold. A time period of 60 days has been allowed to negotiate the sticky points like the disposal of 440 kg enriched uranium, Iran’s ballistic missiles program, regulation of Hormuz , and the proxies issue.
The asymmetry in public disclosures has created competing narratives regarding the agreement’s scope and obligations. As a result, both parties continue to interpret key provisions according to their respective strategic interests.
Unresolved Strategic Question
Will Israel accept a settlement that leaves Hezbollah intact?
Can Iran restrain its regional partners and proxies?
Will hardline factions in Iran, Israel, and the United States support the agreement?
What mechanisms exist to prevent future escalation?
Can Washington provide the security guarantees sought by Tehran?
Who will pay the war damages to Iran?
How long will it take to complete the minesweeping and the repair of Hormuz?
Will the original flow of tankers through the Hormuz be sustained?
Strategic Ambitions
Both sides are genuinely exhausted and have no appetite for escalation? They want to end the war, but on a victorious note. Both sides want more concessions from each other. Iran is also seeking guarantees.
Villain of Peace
Israel is the only villain of peace and appears more reluctant than the other principal actors to conclude the conflict before achieving what it regards as its core strategic and security objectives. This divergence in end-state goals remains one of the principal obstacles to a durable settlement.
If the memorandum of understanding is transformed into an agreement for a permanent settlement and peace in the region, it will roll back the ambitions of Israel’s Greater Israel project, and it’s penchant to dominate the Middle East.
Gulf-Iran Relations
Iran and the Gulf States have a catholic marriage dictated by geography. Geography has condemned Iran and the Arab Gulf monarchies to coexistence and there is no divorce.
Whatever their political disagreements, neither side can relocate. Consequently, long-term regional stability depends not upon permanent confrontation but upon the gradual construction of confidence-building mechanisms and mutually acceptable security arrangements.
While it is going to take quite some time to rebuild the trust, the Arab States understand that they do have to build relationships with Iran.
The conflict once again demonstrated that the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical maritime choke points. Any disruption immediately reverberates through global energy markets, underscoring the continuing strategic leverage Iran derives from its geographic position.
Pakistan A Net Stabiliser
Pakistan emerged as an important diplomatic intermediary during the crisis. Through a combination of quiet diplomacy, engagement with both regional and global stakeholders, and close coordination with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Türkiye, and China, Islamabad contributed to efforts aimed at de-escalation and conflict resolution.
The crisis has enhanced Pakistan’s diplomatic profile and demonstrated its ability to engage constructively with competing regional actors.
Whether this translates into a sustained role in Middle Eastern security diplomacy remains to be seen, but Islamabad’s contribution to de-escalation has undoubtedly strengthened its international standing.
About the Author
Brigadier (Retd) Asif Haroon Raja, SI (M) is a war veteran. He is Command and Staff Course and War Course qualified, holds an MSc in War Studies, and served as Defence Attaché in Egypt and Sudan, as well as Dean of the Corps of Military Attachés in Cairo.
He is a defence, security, and geopolitical analyst, columnist, featured columnist of IntelDrop magazine Washington, author of five books, former Chairman of Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Patron-in-Chief of Centre for Development Studies Think Tank, Director of Meesakh Research Centre; he regularly appears on media platforms.
